What Will the Dodgers do Long-Term with Kiké?

Color me shocked, the Dodgers are in the midst of having another logjam.

Howie Kendrick likely won’t be back for another couple weeks which leaves the Dodgers with an opening at second likely to be filled by Enrique Hernandez. By now, you’ve surely seen Kiké’s antics.

Or there was the time he got really excited about a Yasmani Grandal home run. (cc @DanielBrim).

It’s impossible for me to be impartial in this post, since I remember watching a random Astros game last year and watching a 22-year-old start the game in centerfield and move to shortstop. This intrigued me, as those are generally regarded as two of the toughest/most important positions to play defensively. When I saw that he was part of the Dee Gordon trade, I was elated. Hernandez wasn’t ever a top prospect or all that highly-regarded in the minors, but he just seemed like a guy I really wanted on the Dodgers. 

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He’s been nothing short of incredible for the Dodgers in 2015. For starters, he’s played five of the nine positions on the field, which has value in itself. It’s impossible to get a good read of less that a half-season’s innings worth of defensive metrics, especially considering his half season has been split five different ways. Either way, he’s definitely passed my eye test at any position he’s played this year. Maybe average-below average in center, but that could just be that we’re spoiled watching Joc Pederson roam around out there.

Kiké’s bat has been far beyond what most people could have expected out of a 23-year-old that still had his rookie status intact this year. In 165 plate appearances this season, Hernandez has a .300/.352/.513 slashline with 18 of his 45 hits going for extra bases (10 2b, 2 3b, 6 HR). His BABIP is a little on the higher side (.351), so it’s reasonable to expect a slight regression in that slashline. He has also struck out in nearly 22 percent of plate appearances, which could also be cleaned up a bit.

Hard to complain too much about a guy that seems extremely well-liked and humble, playing above average defense at five positions that has a wRC+ of 141, which is fourth on the team if you disqualify Chin-hui Tsao (which I do).

Aug 11, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Enrique Hernandez (14) on deck in the second inning of the game against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

His value to the team isn’t really that surprising. Before the season, ZIPS projected (if they were both full-time players) that Kiké would post a higher WAR this year than Gordon (2.1-1.7). Kiké obviously hasn’t gotten enough playing time to show if it would have happened, but Gordon is having a career year in Miami both offensively and defensively and already has a 2.9 WAR this year. It’s not too crazy to assume that Hernandez would be close to that if he were a regular. Gordon has 455 plate appearances and 889 1/3 innings played in the field this year. Hernandez has 165 and 479 1/3, respectively. And Kiké has been worth a 1.6 WAR.

Unless Kendrick fails to recover from his hamstring, it’s tough to see Hernandez being a full-time starter this season. Next year could get interesting, as Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins are both free agents. With Kiké’s emergence and the acquisition of Jose Peraza, it’s tough to see the Dodgers re-signing Kendrick. They’ll probably extend a qualifying offer which will get the Dodgers a draft pick if he walks, which opens the door for Kiké or Peraza to take over at second. We all know Corey Seager is set to take over at short next season, which could leave Kiké or Peraza on the bench. While Kiké is considered a better hitter, Peraza’s speed makes him a prime leadoff candidate and his glove is very highly regarded.

I know he’s probably earned his keep by now, but what if Hernandez took left field from Andre Ethier? Ethier is the longest-tenured Dodger and has been consistently good for the Dodgers this year, but he’ll be 34 next April and is still due to make $35 million through 2017 with an option in 2018 which kicks in with 550 PA in 2017 or 1,100 PA from 2016-2017. While the Dodgers seemingly have infinite money, I would much rather that potentially $52 million dollars go towards the make sure Zack Greinke retires as a Dodger foundation. If the Dodgers can sell Ethier while his stock is high, much like they did Gordon and to a lesser extent, Matt Kemp, they could have Hernandez (or even Peraza, who has played in the outfield in the minors) in left.

If the Dodgers do this, Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner would be the only starting position players over the age of 27. You could have a pair of 21-year-olds as a double play combo, along with a 27-year-old all-star catcher and at 25, Yasiel Puig would be the oldest outfielder. Depending on how Seager handles short, this could be the best defensive team in recent history, with a solid mix of youth and experience and cost-effective, exciting players.

Calling Hernandez an every-day starter at one position could sort of devalue him, but giving Scott Van Slyke and Carl Crawford (if he’s still on the team) spot starts and letting Kiké continue to backup in center and at short/second could work. It’s still a long ways away and I generally hate writing about next year when the Dodgers are in first place this year, but Hernandez should definitely be a part of the Dodgers’ long term plans.

PSA- On IOS, hold the “e” button for a few seconds, and then push “2” for the accent. It’s more complicated on Windows, but go here. Or just call him Enrique/Qui Qui/Kiki/Bananaman.

Next: Dodger Homestand Hits and Misses