Dodgers: Looking Ahead to the Monster 2018 Free Agent Class
Best in Class
Unless you’ve been under a rock, you know that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are expected to be the most sought-after players this off-season. Kershaw would be in this same category, but his status is still technically undecided. As I’ve previously written, I don’t anticipate the Dodgers as serious contenders for Harper or Machado.
Manny Machado
Manny Machado is a bad fit for the Dodgers. Seager has short locked down and will be under team control through 2021. Or longer if they have the sense to sign him to an extension rather than wait for him to hit free agency at 27. Although Seager just went down with a season-ending injury, he’s young. He just turned 24 in April, and I anticipate a full (and hopefully speedy) recovery. I don’t see the Dodgers shifting Seager to third to free up short for Machado. Besides, the Dodgers already have Turner signed to play third through 2020.
While it’s possible the Dodgers could try to move Turner to make room for Machado at third, it’s unlikely that Machado would be amenable to that. He has already expressed his clear desire to play shortstop. Given that Machado is going to get his money one way or the other, it stands to reason that he’ll go with a team who will play him where he wants to play. Someone will sign Manny to play short, but it won’t be the Dodgers.
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper presents a more interesting possibility but still seems doubtful. The Dodgers mercurial right fielder, Yasiel Puig, will be a free agent after this year as well. Depending on how Puig plays (and behaves) this year, the Dodgers may be inclined to stick with Puig. There is no doubt that Harper would be an upgrade over Puig. But with speculation that Harper could command baseball’s first 400 million dollar contract, that would be quite an expensive upgrade. Is Harper enough of an upgrade to justify the price tag?
For all his hype, Harper has only managed to put up one monster season. Harper’s 2015 was truly a great season, but he hasn’t come close to putting up those numbers in any other season before or since. In fact, if you take away that one season and compare Harper and Puig, their numbers look closer than one might expect. From 2013 to 2017, Puig played 587 games with 15.9 WAR. From 2012 to 2017 (excluding 2015), Harper played 655 games with 16.2 WAR.
Harper has certainly demonstrated an ability to play at an elite level. But he’s only managed to stay healthy enough to show how those numbers would look over an entire season once. I’m not sure the Front Office would commit that kind of money to Harper given his propensity for injury. (Caveat: I suppose one could argue that this Front Office might just jump at the chance to sign an injury-prone super-star and then tout their depth when he inevitably gets injured.)