Dodgers: Potential tandem starter pairs to watch out for this October
Pitchers to Use Against Righty Lineups
Last night, the Dodgers took on a fairly balanced lineup. Tommy Pham (R), then Austin Meadows (L), followed by Travis d’Arnaud (R), and then my personal favorite, Rays first baseman Ji-man Choi (L). This sort of balanced attack means you pick your favorite matchup and ride with that arm.
For Roberts, that meant going with Caleb Ferguson. For me, against a lineup like this, with righty hitters like Pham and d’Arnaud, both of whom have plenty of power, 20 home runs for Pham and 16 for d’Arnaud, it would be tough to go with Ferguson in that sort of situation again.
If tough righties, like say Ronald Acuña and Josh Donaldson outnumber tough lefties, like say Freddie Freeman, then it makes more sense to me to go with a right-handed opener. For the Braves specifically, I’d try and limit the inexperience against them, which would rule out May. But Gonsolin has actually pitched well against the Braves this season already and has seemed comfortable as a starter.
If Gonsolin, who has a .183 batting average against when facing right-handed hitters, can get through the order twice, he’ll have done his job, he really doesn’t need much help with bottoms of the order.
If he struggles with his pitch count after the first nine outs, as he is apt to due, then potentially Ferguson or Urias, a hard-throwing lefty, could be brought in, preferably to face the toughest lefty slugger in the opposing lineup. But even then, Gonsolin does have a .200 batting average against versus lefties and has allowed two home runs to both righties and lefties in a similar number of innings.
Gonsolin’s balance and lack of volatility make him a solid playoff opener, especially against righty-heavy lineups, but his inexperience means he should not face the top of the order a third time. As a Dodger, he’s actually only tried to go through the third time in the order for four outs, surrendering three earned runs and a .429 batting average against in this scenario.
Following Gonsolin with hard-throwing lefties and then going back to accuracy-based relievers like Stripling and Maeda could be a solid strategy. Again to use Atlanta as an example, the Braves have little experience with Stripling in 2019, but had an .860 OPS (buoyed by a .289 AVG and .556 SLG) against him in 2018 in 45 at-bats. Against Maeda, the Braves actually haven’t faced Maeda in 2019 as a starter, but in 2018 hit him weakly, with no home runs and a .263 AVG in 19 ABs, and in 2017 hit just .083 off him in 23 ABs.
Potential options: Gonsolin (9-12 outs) > Ferguson/Urias (1-5 outs) > Maeda/Stripling (necessary bridge innings)