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Dodgers: What we learned from LAD’s 2021 projections

Adam Weinrib
Adam Weinrib

Dodgers Way

Julio Urias - Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ present and future looks very bright if you believe the 2021 ZiPS Projections for the team.

Dodgers fans basking in the championship glow might not be ready to move their focus to 2021 just yet, but perhaps these projections for next season will change their minds.

After all, when you’re outright projected to be the best team in baseball by a wide margin again, that could be enough to pique anyone’s interest.

FanGraphs has released their ZiPS projections for the Dodgers’ individual WAR totals in 2021, using only players on the current roster (sorry, Justin Turner), and there’s a ton to be excited about here — as well as a few low estimates that made us cock our heads to the side a bit.

For starters, there’s a lot to like in the starting rotation (see what we did there?). While Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw dueling for the ace spot isn’t necessarily eye-opening, we were definitely intrigued by just how high Julio Urias is flying these days.

Fresh off a postseason in which he became the Dodgers’ most indispensable middle man and occasional closer, ZiPS projects Urias will be the best of the youth movement in 2021, bypassing David Price as the rotation’s third-most-valuable starter. Unfortunately, this leaves Tony Gonsolin in the dust a little bit — the Baseball America Rookie of the Year is projected to be more of swingman next season.

Partially, this is explained by the fact that ZiPS takes into account just how dominant a player’s postseason was, and what that portends for next year. Hence, Gonsolin’s fall and Urias’ meteoric rise.

From what we see here for the position players, it looks like ZiPS expects business as usual in 2021, and isn’t banking on any sort of out-of-character breakout from Gavin Lux. Though a 2.9 projection at second base is hardly bearish, it indicates the expectations are still somewhat middling.

If Lux overperforms? Then this Dodgers offense is poised to hit an entirely different peak.

It’s all just mathematics until the curtain rises on Opening Day, but we love the enthusiasm we’re seeing so far.

Adam Weinrib

Adam Weinrib

Adam Weinrib is a Content Director on the FanSided network, and has been the co-editor at Yanks Go Yard and Dodgers Way for 4 years. He also co-hosts The Baseball Insiders Podcast twice weekly, alongside FanSided MLB insider Robert Murray, as well as the Yanks Go Yard Podcast. Previously, he was a Senior Editor at 12up.com, and has been covering MLB and NFL for eight years. Previously, he was a headline and features contributor at ClickHole and Onion Sports, as well as the Associate Producer of the ESPN 30 for 30 film "Believeland". An avowed fan of the New York sports teams -- specifically the Yankees -- as well as the North Carolina Tar Heels, you can find Adam complaining mid-game on Twitter, as well as on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn if the game goes really poorly.