3 top prospects Dodgers can afford to trade this offseason

You have to give in order to get better, a concept that Los Angeles Dodgers patriarch Andrew Friedman has managed to understand better than almost anyone during the franchise’s rise to dominance.

Though the big-league roster has always packed an impressive punch, Friedman is mostly known for simultaneously building a player development machine below the surface, creating a standout farm system with as much star power as it has depth. He also, seemingly, knows exactly who to churn out in trades and when to do it (though we’re a bit surprised he’s held onto Gavin Lux for so long…).

Essentially, when the Dodgers trade a top prospect, they’re usually dealing from a position of strength or taking advantage of a redundancy — or they’re taking a very rare painful loss in order to add a true difference-maker, like when they surrendered Jeter Downs to import Mookie Betts.

(Downs is also struggling in Boston’s system, though you didn’t hear that from us.)

So, which big names can the Dodgers afford to part with when the MLB lockout is lifted? This isn’t as easy a conversation as it used to be.

For one thing, LA’s farm system isn’t quite as highly-ranked as it used to be, thanks to graduations and trades. Ranked third by MLB Pipeline prior to 2020, their midseason 2021 ranking dropped the Dodgers to 16th; according to Baseball America, they’re 15th.

Additionally, the No. 1 spot on this list used to be painfully obvious: Keibert Ruiz, no matter what the front office said about him, was always available. Ruiz was a well-developed slugging catcher knocking on the door of MLB, but there was no reason to dethrone Will Smith, among baseball’s best at the position. Plus, Ruiz isn’t a big-league backup; Austin Barnes is much better suited to that gig.

The Dodgers realized this, of course, using Ruiz as the central chip of their Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade. As usual, they picked the exact right time to deploy him.

Now, LA’s No. 1 prospect is another catcher, Diego Cartaya. Just 20 years old and at Single-A, though, the team can afford to wait a few more years, let him develop, and then reassess. Safe to say he’s not on the move unless the braintrust is blown away by something unforeseen.

The following three players, all of whom have more undefined roles, may not be so lucky, and could find themselves in a new locale while their value is still relatively high.

The Dodgers can afford to trade these three top prospects.

3. Bobby Miller

Coming out of the 2020 MLB Draft, when the Dodgers were able to select Miller at the back of the first round, the jury was split. Would the Louisville righty who could touch 99 have a future atop a rotation? Or would he end up in the back end of the ‘pen, as his profile indicated he might?

Miller’s 2021 season didn’t definitively answer that question, of course, but he certainly managed to peak in his pro debut, capped by an eye-opening Arizona Fall League session.

LA didn’t take the reins off Miller at any point; in 14 minor-league starts across High-A and Double-A (17 outings), he tossed just 56.1 impressive innings, striking out 70. An oblique injury shut him down midseason, and he was only able to regroup at the end of the campaign (prior to the AFL) for four September appearances, good for 12 more innings.

So, what is the flamethrower, exactly? Keith Law of The Athletic is bullish on the righty, claiming the Dodgers have uncovered another top-of-the-rotation starter. Most others seem to disagree, though, and the degree of risk in Miller’s stature and profile is extremely high.

If Los Angeles would like to sell high this offseason (Miller is MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 prospect and LA’s second-ranked arm behind Ryan Pepiot), we’d understand. After all, the praise has flowed in recent weeks, but it’s still unclear where Miller’s value lies. And you’d rather deal him as a centerpiece before the rest of the baseball world decides he’s a closer.

1. Andre Jackson

The Dodgers have told us what they think of Andre Jackson plenty over the past few years. A ‘tweener who many envision as a bullpen arm, Jackson was passed over plenty of times during 40-man roster shuffles this summer before Los Angeles finally gave him a tap on the shoulder in mid-August.

Facing dire straits, Los Angeles only gave Jackson two appearances in an 11-day span before the end of the month. He got one more on Oct. 3 to wrap up a very impressive season at Triple-A that resulted in precious few big-league opportunities.

The sum total? A 2.31 ERA in 11.2 innings, but a 1.371 WHIP that seems to indicate he got quite lucky in terms of his strand rate (four walks in four innings, but no runs in his MLB debut, for example).

Jackson will be 26 years old by the time the calendar turns to May; it’s truly now or never for him to make a big-league impact, and the Dodgers still seem conflicted about whether his future is in the rotation or the ‘pen, despite a consistently impressive performance across every level in 2019 and 2021.

A bullpen piece who can cover multiple innings is valuable, of course … but the Dodgers seemed to indicate last season that they don’t believe Jackson can be trusted in high-leverage opportunities at the moment, either. They tossed retreads into the fire repeatedly in 2021 (Justin Bruihl? Phil Bickford?) instead of Jackson, and perhaps they were right to do so. If that’s their assessment of his current talent level, though, they should trade their top-15 prospect and Futures Game participant to someone who sees more of an opportunity for him in the immediate future. Because, at his age, there’s not much more time to mess around.

Dodgers: 3 MLB trade deadline chips plummeting in value

The Los Angeles Dodgers thought these three players would be more highly coveted as the MLB Trade Deadline approaches. Aw well.