Blue Jays vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Wednesday, July 26 (Fade starting pitchers)

Tony Gonsolin and Yusei Kikuchi are fade candidates on Wednesday afternoon.

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers play the rubber match of their three-game set on Wednesday afternoon at Dodger Stadium.

Toronto took Game 1 behind a strong performance from the team’s bullpen to win in 11 innings, but the Dodgers followed that up with an extra-innings victory of their own on Tuesday night.

Both bullpens have been taxed in this series, so how does that affect these teams in Game 3?

Well, first we need to look at the starting pitching matchup.

Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.94 ERA) gets the ball for Los Angeles against Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 3.92 ERA).

On the surface, both of these starters look to be having solid seasons, but there is a reason that bettors should fade them on Wednesday.

Here are the latest odds and my best bet for this rubber match:

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers prediction and pick

I broke down this series with Iain MacMillan on a recent episode of Baseball Insiders, and I’m still rolling with my pick for Game 3. 

The OVER is the way to go, and there are several reasons why, beginning with the starting pitching matchup. 

While Gonsolin’s season-long numbers don’t look awful, there is some major cause for concern for him as of late. 

  • Since June 1, Gonsolin has made eight starts, allowing at least four runs in six of those outings. 
  • Overall, he has posted a 5.79 ERA and 4.83 Fielding Independent Pitching since the start of June. Gonsolin has allowed 35 hits and 17 walks in 42.0 innings over that stretch. 

An All-Star in 2022, Gonsolin hasn’t had the same form this season, and it’s worth noting that his season-long FIP (4.73) is nearly a run higher than his ERA.

The same can be said for Kikuchi, who comes into this game with a 4.95 FIP this season. The lefty may struggle against a Dodgers offense that ranks seventh in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching.

Not only that, but Kikuchi has really struggled to avoid hard contact this season, ranking in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity against and the 20th percentile in barrel percentage.

Given how these starters have performed and the fact that both bullpens have been used in back-to-back extra-innings games, I’ll take the OVER on Wednesday afternoon.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change