Two division leaders face off in Los Angeles on Wednesday with the Milwaukee Brewers taking on Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.
Kershaw (10-4, 2.51 ERA) is making his second start since returning from the injured list, and he should thrive against a Milwaukee team that has been below average against left-handed pitchers in 2023.
The Brewers are countering with a lefty of their own, sending Wade Miley (6-2, 2.90 ERA) to the mound. Miley has a solid ERA, but his Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 4.41. Could regression be coming for the veteran?
Let’s break down the odds for this game and I’ll share my best bet for Wednesday’s matchup.
Brewers vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction and pick
On the surface it may look like an even pitching matchup given these starters' numbers this season, but I don’t think it is.
Kershaw is the better starter: Since the beginning of June, Kershaw hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start, posting a 1.18 ERA over that stretch. We know Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers ever, so I have confidence in him to out-duel Miley.
Don’t fall in love with Miley’s ERA: Yes, Wade Miley’s ERA looks great, but his FIP suggests that he’s been getting a bit lucky. Miley has been a journeyman pitcher for a reason, and his expected ERA is in the 27th percentile this season. He also ranks in the 12th percentile in strikeout percentage and ninth percentile in walk percentage. Those aren’t numbers I want associated with my starter against Kershaw.
Brewers are fade-worthy vs. lefties: The Brewers are just 23rd in Major League Baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching this season. They have struggled against lefties in consecutive seasons.
Dodgers are elite vs. left-handed pitching: The Dodgers, on the other hand, are No. 3 in the league in OPS against lefties. That should allow them to get to Miley in this matchup.
All the signs point to the Dodgers – one of the best teams in baseball – winning big tonight. I’m going to bet on it happening.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.