Advertisement

Can Dodgers win bidding for ex-Padres free agent starter?

Worth a flyer, even if it's a costly one?
Adam Weinrib
Adam Weinrib

Dodgers Way

Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres / Sean M. Haffey/GettyImages

The Los Angeles Dodgers -- and stop me if you've heard this one before -- need to come away from this offseason with as much pitching depth as humanly possible.

That should include a few bounce-back candidates on deals that only the Dodgers can pay them. A few Mark Prior projects -- preferably hometown boys Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty? -- would be warranted and necessary. But ... sigh ... it would also be nice to hit a few home runs along the way, too. The Dodgers can't close the door on the market saying, "We nabbed five potential No. 4s with a No. 2 ceiling!" They need to know who gets the ball in Game 3 of a playoff series. Full stop.

And while Padres right-hander Seth Lugo might not be the flashiest name in the pool with Lance Lynn fire behind his eyes, he silently got a significant job done last summer in San Diego. Now wisely testing the market again, Lugo will likely encounter a notable group of suitors, and you can already count the Dodgers among them.

Per FanSided's Robert Murray, more than half the league has checked in on Lugo, an estimate confirmed by KPRC 2's Ari Alexander, who noted the Dodgers' interest. We know Los Angeles is equipped to win the bidding. Do they love a player two-thirds of the league loves more than any other franchise does?

Dodgers Free Agency: Interest in righty Seth Lugo

The 34-year-old Lugo is probably in line for a multi-year pact (you think?), considering most of MLB is after his services. A three-year deal at $15 million AAV would seem like a reasonable contract ... as well as a bargain, considering Luis Severino was deemed worthy of $13 million for a single season after posting an ERA that licked 7.00.

Let's be kind and give Lugo three years and $50 million to see if that differentiates the Dodgers from the pack. Last year, he was worth 1.8 bWAR and got over the innings hump as a converted reliever, totaling 146.1 in San Diego. He struck out 140 and used his fastball and exceptional curve in near equal parts to keep hitters guessing. Shockingly, the fastball was far more effective last season (97th percentile in run value), and his curve now must catch back up (16th percentile in breaking run value).

What's that sound? A project for Prior embedded within a working arsenal? Sounds like the best of both worlds for LA.

Adam Weinrib

Adam Weinrib

Adam Weinrib is a Content Director on the FanSided network, and has been the co-editor at Yanks Go Yard and Dodgers Way for 4 years. He also co-hosts The Baseball Insiders Podcast twice weekly, alongside FanSided MLB insider Robert Murray, as well as the Yanks Go Yard Podcast. Previously, he was a Senior Editor at 12up.com, and has been covering MLB and NFL for eight years. Previously, he was a headline and features contributor at ClickHole and Onion Sports, as well as the Associate Producer of the ESPN 30 for 30 film "Believeland". An avowed fan of the New York sports teams -- specifically the Yankees -- as well as the North Carolina Tar Heels, you can find Adam complaining mid-game on Twitter, as well as on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn if the game goes really poorly.