The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to remind people that they are the class of the National League.
Los Angeles has taken two from the Braves in Atlanta this week and looks to make it a three in a row on Wednesday with Tony Gonsolin takes the mound. The Dodgers right hander started the season on the injured list, but has hit the ground running this season with a 1,13 ERA through five starts. However, can he keep it up against one of the best offenses in baseball?
They same can be asked for the Braves starter Bryce Elder, who has a 2.06 ERA that leads the National League amongst qualified starters, but has some underlying regression looming against an elite offense.
Here are the odds for Wednesday's high powered matchup:
Dodgers vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Braves prediction and pick
Elder has been strong this season, limiting damage with pinpoint control and avoiding jams with a a low walk rate (less than three per nine) and a low home run rate, but the Dodgers discipline at the plate can lead to some issues. Nobody draws more walks than Los Angeles at nearly 11% and the team has been firing at the plate in Atlanta, scoring eight runs in both games. The Braves second year starter has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 3.34, more than a run higher than his ERA, indicating that he has been lucky once the ball is in play.
The Dodgers are the perfect team to hand the Braves righty some regression, but the Braves can do the same to Gonsolin, who has been pitching over his head for years now. The 2022 All-Star had an ERA that was more than a run lower than his FIP last season with a 16-1 record, and it appears he is doing the same this year, with a 1.13 ERA that is supported by a 4.03 FIP.
He is pitching worse this season in a limited sample, walking one more batter per nine this season and striking out one fewer in the same timeframe.
These two teams are top ten in wRC+ this season, meaning they are as good as any team in the bigs at generating high quality run scoring chances, and with the underlying regression due for Elder and Gonsolin, I'll go with the over on Wednesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.