Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Thursday, April 20 (Value on total)
By Peter Dewey
For the second time this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs face off in a series.
Chicago took two out of three from Los Angeles in the first meeting between these teams, and the Cubs are fresh off a sweep of the Oakland Athletics.
The Dodgers have gotten off to a bit of a slow start, but they are still expected to be World Series contenders this season.
Michael Grove (0-1, 9.00 ERA) gets the ball for Los Angeles in this game against Jameson Taillon (0-2, 4.50 ERA) who was signed by the Cubs in free agency this offseason.
Let’s break down the latest odds and a best bet for this matchup:
Dodgers vs. Cubs odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Cubs prediction and pick
I don’t have a strong lean towards either team in this matchup, but the total all the way up at 10.5 is an invitation to take the UNDER.
While Grove and Taillon don’t look great from an ERA perspective this season, their advanced numbers show that they’ve actually pitched fairly well.
Taillon is in the 81st percentile in expected ERA this season, while Grove is in the 58th percentile in that statistic and the 71st percentile in hard hit percentage.
Chicago’s offense scored double-digit runs in two of its three games against Oakland, but these two teams went UNDER 10.5 runs in all three games of their series last week.
In fact, this exact pitching matchup yielded a 2-1 Dodgers win with Taillon pitching five scoreless innings and Grove allowing just one run across 5.2 frames.
While these teams rank No. 3 and No. 4 in OPS this season, I think this total is a bit of an overreaction to the Cubs’ hot bats. I’ll bet the UNDER on anything above 10.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.