The Los Angeles Dodgers handed the Arizona Diamondbacks their seventh straight loss on Tuesday night, putting them 10 games ahead of Arizona in the NL West standings.
The last two weeks have been a disaster for the D-Backs, who rank 29th in Major League Baseball in OPS over that stretch. They've lost 23 of their last 30 games.
They’ll turn to one of their better starters on Wednesday to try to stop the bleeding in the loss column. Merrill Kelly (9-5, 3.21 ERA) gets the ball for Arizona against Dodgers youngster Bobby Miller (6-2, 4.26 ERA).
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick
Kelly’s first two starts of the 2023 season were against the Dodgers, but he hasn’t faced them since. He allowed four runs (two earned) across 9.1 innings of work in those matchups, but he also walked a concerning eight batters in those games.
Still, Kelly has been solid in 19 starts this season, allowing more than three earned runs in just three of those outings. He should be able to keep the Dodgers in check enough for us to bet the UNDER here.
The Los Angeles offense has been hot, but I believe it will be offset by the struggling D-Backs.
While Miller has an ERA over 4.00, he has a Fielding Independent Pitching of just 3.54 this season, signaling that he could be due for some positive regression. The righty’s ERA is heavily influenced by two outings in mid June where he allowed 13 earned runs. He’s only allowed 17 earned runs in his 10 other starts.
Tuesday’s game finished with nine combined runs, and Arizona hasn't scored more than four runs in a game since July 26. Plus, the team has finished with nine or fewer runs in 10 of its last 11 matchups.
This is a no-brainer to go UNDER on Wednesday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.