The Los Angeles Dodgers caught fire before the All-Star break, rattling off four straight wins to climb back into the top spot in the National League West division. The team will look to keep that momentum going on Friday against the New York Mets, who currently sit in fourth in the NL East and dropped their final two games before the break.
Dodgers lefty Julio Urías (6-5, 4.76 ERA) gets the ball against New York’s ace Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.60 ERA). Urías missed time this season with a hamstring injury, and he’s struggled in two starts since returning, allowing seven earned runs and nine hits in just nine innings of work.
Los Angeles needs him to return to his Cy Young-esque form to have a shot at winning the World Series this season, and the Mets could be a team that he finds his mojo against given their offensive struggles in 2023.
Let’s examine the odds and my best bet for this Friday night matchup:
Dodgers vs. Mets odds, run line and total
Dodgers vs. Mets prediction and pick
Normally the pitching matchup would be the main focus in this meeting since Verlander and Urías are on the mound, but both pitchers have struggled a bit in 2023.
Verlander has a better ERA than Urías, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is still up at 4.00 on the season. The veteran right-hander has been much better at home (2.19 ERA vs. a 5.18 ERA on the road) this season, but I’m not sure that’s enough to warrant a wager on the Mets on Friday.
The Dodgers, to their credit, have destroyed right-handed pitching this season. They rank No. 3 in OPS, No. 4 in home runs and No. 2 in walks against righties, a major concern for Verlander and the Mets.
This becomes magnified when one looks at the Mets’ offense against left-handed pitching in 2023. New York comes in at just 20th in OPS and 25th in batting average against lefties.
Urías is due for a bounce-back outing, and he showed some positive signs in his final game before the break, holding the Pittsburgh Pirates to three hits and two runs across six frames of work.
Since these two teams are very similar in bullpen ERA this season (23rd and 21st), I feel comfortable backing Urías and the Dodgers to steal a road win on Friday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.