Dodgers vs. Reds prediction and odds for Tuesday, June 6 (Tough Times Coming for Tony?)

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (26)
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (26) / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Over the weekend the Los Angeles Dodgers welcomed the New York Yankees into town and New York took two of three from the Dodgers. Now, LA is heading to Ohio for a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (hello, Elly De La Cruz!).

LA is still in a tie atop the NL West at 35-25 even after a tough weekend while the Reds salvaged the finale of their four game series with the Brewers yesterday to get to 27-33. Cincinnati is third in the NL Central. 

LA needs to get back into the win column to keep pace with the Diamondbacks in the West and the rest of the National League, and the good news for them is Tony Gonsolin is headed to the mound tonight. Gonsolin is 3-1 in seven starts with a 1.77 ERA.

Cincinnati will counter with Luke Weaver who hasn’t had the same success in his eight outings this year. Weaver is 1-2 with a 5.36 ERA. 

Let’s take a look at the odds for this one as the Dodgers are road favorites at Great American Ballpark. 

Dodgers vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Dodgers vs. Reds prediction and pick

The Dodgers offense was red hot heading into the weekend, and it took Gerrit Cole and Domingo German having great starts back-to-back to finally cool them off. Over the past two games the Dodgers scored four total runs, but in the past week they have an .827 OPS which is seventh in the MLB. They might need to give Gonsolin some run support despite his dominance so far this year. 

Gonsolin has been the beneficiary of getting out of the game early and that’s a credit to Dave Roberts, but the more he pitches he is going to get exposed. Gonsolin has a 1.77 ERA, but a 4.60 FIP and 4.83 xERA. He is 18th percentile in strikeout rate and 41st percentile in walk rate.

He doesn’t have a great whiff rate either, so he’s benefited greatly from a .155 batting average on balls in play. That is far below league average and is almost an anomaly when you consider that Gonsolin is below average in average exit velocity and 52nd percentile in barrel rate. 

The Reds are not great offensively, but Spencer Steer has a .995 OPS in the past week and Jake Fraley has a 1.041 OPS with two home runs over that same stretch.

Cincy will likely be able to score on Gonsolin, but with Luke Weaver pitching it might not be enough to get the win. There is a high total, but that doesn’t scare me, I’m betting on Gonsolin regression today. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change