Nationals vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Memorial Day (Trust Bobby Miller)

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller (70).
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller (70). / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Two of the best teams on the run line this season will open a series on Memorial Day, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Washington Nationals on Monday.

Washington is in last place in the NL East, but the team has played better than many expected this season, going 23-30 through its first 53 games and posting just a minus-21 run differential. 

The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West, but they’ve lost six of their last 10 games. 

Bobby Miller (1-0, 1.80 ERA) will make his second career start for Los Angeles against Nationals veteran Trevor Williams (2-2, 4.32 ERA).

Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Nationals vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total

Nationals vs. Dodgers prediction and pick

Even though Washington has been solid on the run line this season, I’m fading the Nats here with Williams on the mound. 

After starting the season strong, Williams’ ERA has ballooned from 3.41 to 4.32 in his last four starts, and he has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 5.05. That means there could be some more regression coming for Williams, who has never been a front line starter in his career.

Miller shut down the Atlanta Braves in his MLB debut, allowing just one run on four hits in five frames last week. 

The hard-throwing righty is going to have an easier time against the Nats, who rank 22nd in MLB in runs scored and 20th in OPS so far this season. 

The Dodgers have also been an elite team at home, going 17-7 on the season. I’ll back Los Angeles in this game. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.