Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Saturday, May 13 (Trust the Trends and the Pitchers in LA)

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias (7)
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias (7) / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

The race for the NL West will be decided largely by rivalry between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. After the Padres took Game 1 of the season series, the Dodgers have rattled off three straight including a 4-2 win last night. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hit back-to-back homers to carry LA over San Diego at home. The Dodgers are now 24-15 while the Padres are five games back, 19-20.

For Game 2 of this weekend series, the Padres will send Joe Musgrove to the mound with his 1-0 record and 6.75 ERA in three starts. Julio Urias will make his ninth start for the Dodgers. Urias is 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA. 

Here are the odds for the Dodgers and Padres at Dodger Stadium today:

Padres vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total

Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and pick

So far this year we have yet to see Joe Musgrove be Joe Musgrove much at all. However, his last time out was against the Dodgers and he went 5.0 innings allowing one run which wasn’t earned on just two hits. He only had five strikeouts to three walks, but it was by far the best outing of his three. For Musgrove’s career he has 10 starts against LA and has worked a 3.67 ERA with 55 strikeouts to 20 walks. 

I think Musgrove found his rhythm a bit last time out after missing some time this season and should have a strong outing even on the road. However, in May the Dodgers are fourth in OPS while San Diego is 19th, so it’s hard to say that a good Musgrove start will equate to a win for the Padres.

Julio Urias had two rough outings right in a row to end April, but other than that he has pitched well for LA. That includes 5.2 innings with just two runs allowed against the Padres last time out. It’s always interesting handicapping a game when both pitchers are facing the same team for two straight starts. I think it will work in their favor in this one, so I’ll take the under.

The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams. So while it's billed as a heavyweight fight with Slam Diego and the Dodgers, it often comes down to which starting pitcher is better when they're both very good.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change