Twins vs. Dodgers prediction and odds for Wednesday, May 17 (Los Angeles gets it done at home)

May 12, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May (85)
May 12, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May (85) / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Dodgers and Twins have split its first two games of a inter-league series, so who has the edge in the rubber match?

Los Angeles hands the ball to Dustin May while the Twins counter with Sonny Gray, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. However, Minnesota's lineup poses concerns about the team's chances of cashing as an underdog.

How should we attack this game from a betting perspective?

Let's dive into the odds before we share a best bet.

Twins vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Dodgers prediction and pick

While Gray has been fantastic this season, he has an American League best 1.39 ERA, it may be time for some regression for the right hander. Gray hasn't allowed a home run in eight starts this season and has generated an insane strikeout rate of over 11 K's per nine innings (he has only done that in one other season).

The Dodgers lineup hasn't been as elite at hitting this season, but the team gets on base a ton, drawing walks at a top three rate, which is where Gray struggles most, walking more than three batters per nine innings.

Further, the Twins offense is going to leave Gray with little margin for error. Over the last 15 days, the Twins are hitting just .220 as a group, 28th in baseball. Against Dustin May, who has also been stellar this season, allowing the fewest hits per nine innings in the National League.

Ultimately, I see an edge for May against a hapless Twins lineup and I like the Dodgers to win the rubber match. Gray has been great, but this is the perfect time to sell on him and Minnesota.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.