Dodgers Reported Deal With Maeda is Complicated

The Dodgers agreement with Kenta Maeda wasn’t all that surprising, until the financials came to light.

This post has been in the works for a while, as it was announced on New Years Eve that the Dodgers would be signing Kenta Maeda, the 27-year-old pitcher posted by the Hiroshima Carp.

The two-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s version of the Cy Young) gives the Dodgers the right-handed starter they lacked, and while he project to be as good as some previous Japanese pitchers, most conservative estimates peg him as a solid third or fourth starter.

Many figured he would not come cheap, as most projections figured he would get a contract similar to that of Mike Leake. The terms of his deal, while unconfirmed, are absolutely shocking.

I don’t remember ever hearing about a contract like this. The difference between the reports by Meola and Sherman is minimal, and either way it’s really a shocking deal. $15M/year in this market seems to be a starting point for most above-average pitchers, and Maeda will only make that much IF he reaches all of his incentives. His incentives could be slam dunks, like bonuses for every start or something, but the foundation of this deal is incredible.

Most fans were rightfully concerned when the deal first came up. It’s very difficult to justify and eight year deal for any pitcher, especially one that has never thrown a pitch in major league baseball. However, when the total deal could be worth less total than Zack Greinke will make per year, it becomes a lot easier to stomach.

The deal still hasn’t been confirmed by the team or Maeda, and most reports seem to be based on Meola. Not to question Meola or his sources’ credibility, but it’s easy to be skeptical that this deal is legit. I don’t remember ever hearing about a contract with similar terms. Incentives are part of most contracts, but rarely make up the majority of the contract.

If the reports are true, at worst the Dodgers will have Maeda on the payroll for eight years for $3 millions/year. The Dodgers and Dodger fans won’t and shouldn’t lose sleep over $3 million/year for a horrible pitcher. Even if Maeda hits all his incentives, the money won’t be anything the Dodgers will have to worry about (and more than likely, it’ll mean Maeda is pitching really well).

Next: What does Scott Kazmir bring to the Dodgers?

About a week ago, I wrote that Dodger fans have been criticizing literally every move this FO has made. I’m very curious to see what they complain about here. If the reports are true, the Dodgers just signed a solid, potentially pretty good 27-year-old pitcher for eight years to a very low-risk high-reward contract. I’ll have a new post when the contract is official, because it still honestly seems too good to be true.

*note. Meola tweeted that the deal will be made official on Monday. Stay tuned for updates.