Dodgers 2016 Season Previews: Hyun-jin Ryu

Continuing our season previews, we take a look at Dodgers’ starter Hyun-jin Ryu

Hyun-jin Ryu has been nothing but consistent in his time in LA, but an injury cost him all of last season. While he’s progressing well through his shoulder injury, he isn’t expected back on the mound for the Dodgers until May.

2015 Recap

N/A, as Ryu suffered a shoulder injury before Spring Training. He was working to get back, but suffered a setback in May. He underwent surgery for his torn labrum in May and was reportedly believed to be ready for Spring Training this year. He’s been throwing, but at a limited intensity. The Dodgers are handling Ryu very carefully and manager Dave Roberts claimed Ryu to be a couple weeks behind, according to Eric Stephen of True Blue LA. He’s been throwing bullpens and has had normal soreness, nothing to be mistaken for a setback. However, Ryu and the Dodgers don’t expect him to return until May.

Looking back another year, Ryu had a very solid 2014 season. In his second season in the majors, Ryu posted a 3.38 ERA/2.62 FIP combo and struck out 139 batters in his 26 starts/152 innings. Perhaps more importantly, Ryu has been more good than bad for the Dodgers in the postseason. He pitched poorly in his first postseason start in 2013 (six hits, four runs in three innings), but in his other two, he’s allowed a run and eight hits in 13 innings, each against the St. Louis Cardinals.

2016 Role and Steamers Projections

Ryu’s role in 2016 is undefined right now, as he will likely not see the field until May. When he does return, he could realistically slot in anywhere between the second and fifth spots in the rotation. He, Scott Kazmir, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda and eventually Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy all could fit that mold, leaving the Dodgers without a great number two starter, but with a number seven starter that would be second or third in most other staffs in baseball.

Steamers only projects Ryu to start 13 games this season (ZiPS has him down for 22). In those 13 games, Ryu is projected for a 3.34 ERA/3.41 FIP combo and 1.3 WAR in 75 innings. Assuming other pitchers come back strong and remain healthy, those numbers would be fine, but obviously it would be ideal for Ryu to pitch in closer to 20 games.

What Could Go Wrong?

With a player coming off a major injury and not having pitched since October 2013, there might be a few things that could go wrong. The Dodgers are smart by bringing him back conservatively, as rushing him back could lead to him missing even more time later in the season. He had a bit more time between throwing days than usual, but threw today and nothing has seemingly happened that would warrant a setback

If he remains healthy, Ryu will more than likely be a bit rusty. Who knows how he’ll come back. His movement, control and stamina will likely need to be worked back, and normally that’s what Spring Training would be for. Him struggling shouldn’t surprise anyone, the only real disappointment should be if he gets hurt again.

What Could Go Right?

If Ryu bounces back healthy and returns to the Ryu we’ve become accustomed to, not only would it be a huge surprise, but it would go a long way for the Dodgers’ success this year. When he’s on his game, he’s a very strong number two starter. We shouldn’t expect him to come back after nearly two years and not miss a step, but if he progresses well he could be vital down the stretch and in the postseason.