Dodgers 2016 Season Previews: Carlos Frias

Our next season preview focuses on Dodgers’ fifth starter candidate Carlos Frias.

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With an injury to

and

not expected back until May, the Dodgers have a wide-open fifth starter competition.

figures to be the fourth, and there should be a contested battle for the fifth spot in the rotation. One pitcher that may or may not be a candidate is Carlos Frias.

2015 Recap

Frias somehow made the fifth-most starts for the Dodgers in 2015, with 13 starts and 17 appearances in total. He wasn’t horrible, as he posted a 4.06 ERA/4.32 FIP combo in 77 2/3 innings in 2015. Frias went five or more innings in 11 of his 13 starts and allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 starts, so when he started, he did a solid job keeping the Dodgers in the game in the sixth inning. He’ll likely never be a fixture in a rotation, but as an occasional spot starter/long man, you could do a lot worse.

2016 Role and Steamers Projections

His role is pretty undefined at the moment, but a door seems to be open to the rotation and he, Brandon Beachy, Mike Bolsinger and Zach Lee seem to be the main candidates, excluding a couple top pitching prospects in the Dodgers’ organization. Frias is probably the outsider of those four as he’s the only one with significant bullpen experience, but Frias has a couple decent pitches and could very well win the job in the Spring.

Steamers does not feel like he’ll pitch much in the majors this year, as they have him projected for nine innings pitched in two appearances, both starts. In those nine innings, they peg Frias for nine hits allowed, five runs allowed (one unearned) and six strikeouts while walking three. Again, nothing fantastic, but nothing that would hurt the Dodgers too much.

What Could Go Wrong?

With all due respect to Frias, the worst case scenario for his season is if he starts the fifth-most games for the Dodgers again. The Dodgers have enough starting pitching depth where this should be avoidable, but if injuries keep plaguing the Dodgers, Frias could be counted on more than anyone wants.

In theory, Frias should really only appear in April (if at all), and maybe as a September call up. Frias starting a few games in April won’t doom the Dodgers. By my count, if the Dodgers skip spots in the rotation on off days, they will only need a fifth starter three times in April. If my math is correct (probably isn’t), the first time they will need a fifth starter in May is on May 13th. Ideally, Ryu would return by then.

What Could Go Right?

Frias has talent and according to FanGraphs, he throws five pitches (mostly fastball-types, but mixes in a curve and a changeup). If Frias can mix his pitches and find a better offspeed to compliment his three different fastballs (four-seam, two-seam, cutter), he’d improve his strikeout numbers and ideally improve his walk numbers.

It’s really tough to envision a scenario in which he becomes an important part of the Dodgers future. He’s only 26, so there is a chance that something clicks and he becomes a viable starting option. However, it’s still tough to see him jump over a number of more-established arms and make any sort of impact in the Dodgers’ rotation, or to see him take a future spot with a number of quality prospects. In a perfect world, Frias would impress this season and become a valuable trade chip, as he’s not eligible for arbitration until 2018. Even becoming a reliable reliever moving forward would be quite valuable, but it’s tough to see him as a starter for the Dodgers moving forward.