Dodgers Rockies Game Three Preview

The Dodgers look for a sweep with a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery.

The Dodgers’ pitching has been phenomenal this series. Bud Norris tossed six shutout innings, only to be followed up by six shutout from Scott Kazmir. The bullpen has been great other than Chris Hatcher letting Nolan Arenado murder a baseball, so while things looked bleak when the Dodgers announced Clayton Kershaw would be headed to the DL, they’re 3-0 since then. Starters have allowed one run (Kenta Maeda, first inning of the rubber match in Milwaukee) and they’ve scored 19 runs. Sure, it was against the Brewers and Rockies, but this team seems to be rallying around their fallen leader. They’ve gained three games in the division since last Sunday, so while things could be better, things could also be much worse.

The headline of the day is the Dodgers’ starting pitcher, Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy last pitched on April 25, but he left his start against the Padres that day in the fifth with elbow tightness. He underwent Tommy John and his estimated return was always “around the 2016 All-Star break”, so here we are.

McCarthy had a strange month of the season last year. He was throwing harder and striking out more batters than he ever had, but he had a 37.5 percent HR/FB ratio. His ERA was 5.87 and his FIP was 6.22, but his xFIP (FIP, but with an average 10.5 percent HR/FB rate) was 2.67. The ball was flying out of Dodger Stadium early on last season, so if he was healthy, he probably would have bounced back nicely.

McCarthy made his first rehab start on June 11th. He didn’t throw much in his rehab, as he only tossed 13.2 innings in four starts over the last month. Stats don’t mean much in rehab starts, but he allowed 15 hits and seven earned runs while on assignment. His last start came on June 28 with Rancho Cucamonga, and McCarthy threw 72 pitches in five innings.

McCarthy starts on normal rest today. Julio Urias was originally scheduled to start today, but after reaching 100 pitches for the first time in his life in his last start, Urias will get an extra day to recover before throwing tomorrow night against Baltimore. Tuesday’s starter is now TBD, so while they haven’t announced it yet, Brock Stewart will likely be sent down for McCarthy.

Hopefully, McCarthy will have more than four starts this season. The Dodgers are reportedly discussing whether Hyun-jin Ryu is ready to return after he touched 90 MPH for the first time in his rehab start Friday, so the rotation with three rookies might begin to get more solid. Without Kershaw, they still don’t have an innings-eater, and adding two pitchers coming back from injuries won’t help that, so let’s just hope the bullpen keeps on being fantastic.

Jon Gray gets the ball for the Rockies. Gray was one of their highly-touted pitching prospects, but he’s struggled this season, both at Coors Field and on the road. In 40.2 innings away from Coors, Gray owns a 4.65 ERA, but his opponents are only hitting .216/.305/.338 against him. His issue on the road has been his control, as he has walked 17 batters in those 40.2 innings, and only seven walks in 35.2 innings at home. Gray’s first start of the season came at Coors against the Dodgers, and the Dodgers scored five runs in five innings against him. Gray did strike out 10, but Corey Seager and Adrian Gonzalez each took him deep.

A pretty normal lineup considering it’s a day game after a night game. The offense has looked much better lately, so hopefully they can get into rhythm with Joc Pederson sidelined.

Next: Dave Roberts Mid-Season Report

First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PST and will be shown on Sportsnet LA.