Dodgers: Why Dave Roberts Should Stop Micro-Managing

The Dodgers wrapped up the first week of the season with a victory over the Colorado Rockies to avoid a 3 game sweep. There was some good and not so good signs to start the season. But I’m wondering if Dave Roberts is over managing a little bit with all the lineup changes.

The Dodgers walked away with a modest 4-3 record after facing two divisional teams. During the first 7 games of the season, Roberts used a different lineup in every game. It’s been highly documented that the Dodgers were planning on platooning their lineup based on the opposing starting pitcher. But 7 lineups in 7 games worries me a little about the commodity the team will have moving forward.

Part of the reason Roberts has used so many lineups is his commitment to giving the players rest, while also keeping the bench active. Out of all the regular starters, Yasiel Puig is the only Dodger to have started all 7 games.

I don’t expect this to be the case moving forward. But I understand the need to give players rest only a week removed from spring training. As a former player Roberts understands that players are not quite ready to take on the everyday grind of the season. We have Corey Seager and Adrian Gonzalez getting over injuries that ailed them during the spring so Roberts doesn’t want to push players past their health limits.

I’m not saying it’s a bad thing that Roberts has used all these different lineups. When you start a season you need to give players some time to physically get back in the swing of things. Giving rest to players to start the season gives you the ability to gradually work players into their everyday roles. Another thing that resting players does is it keeps the bench active.

In order to have a productive bench, they need to be consistently getting at-bats to stay fresh. In the first week we saw Chase Utley, Franklin Gutierrez, and Kike Hernandez each play in 5 games and Austin Barnes also played in 3 games. I think it’s really important to keep these guys fresh and a part of the daily rotation, but not at the expense of our key players like Pederson or Forsythe. The Dodgers have the benefit of having depth and it would be silly if they didn’t utilize it.

What concerns me about Dave Roberts early on is his constant shuffling of the lineup order. We see drastic changes with the lineup like dropping Adrian Gonzalez to 6th and moving Yasiel Puig to 5th when facing left-handed hitters. The only players that have been stationary in their lineup position are Corey Seager (2nd) and Justin Turner (3rd).

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This worries me because these moves are not about production because the team is just starting the season. Roberts and to an extent the team have taken last year’s struggles against left-handers mentally now. Roberts’ drastic changes to the lineup have led to Joc Pederson only starting 5 out of the first 7 games. Limiting his at-bats against lefties.

Without even test their normal lineup against lefties, Roberts is already sold on Gonzalez hitting lower in the order and having Franklin Gutierrez hit at the top of the order. In terms of analytics, I understand the move. Gonzalez’s power numbers are decreasing and last season his production greatly dropped off against left-handers. He only hit 2 of his 18 home runs and had a mere 16 out of his 90 RBI against lefties. Roberts has justified this move by moving Yasiel Puig to 4th or 5th in the order against lefties.

On paper the move should work in the Dodgers favor, right? Well, this year Puig has gone 0-12 when hitting either 4th or 5th in the order. Compare that to Puig hitting 7th or 8th, Puig is hitting .538 with 3 home runs and 5 RBI. Part of the reason Puig has better splits at the bottom of the order is because he sees more fastballs hitting at the bottom of the order. This season Puig owns a 1.68 pitch value per fastballs thrown to him, that’s even better than his 1.11 PV he rated in his 2013. Of course, small sample size, but shows improvement and justifies him hitting lower in the order.

Another move Roberts has tried to implement this season is moving Logan Forsythe from the top of the order to the middle of the order (5th). Forsythe’s production through the first week of the season shows that he’s a much more comfortable hitting leadoff than in the middle of the order. In Forsythe’s 3 games hitting leadoff he has 5 hits in 12 at-bats (.416). Compare that with his 3 games hitting in the middle of the order where he has 1 hit in 11 at-bats (.090).

Roberts continues to tinker with the Dodgers lineup until he finds their best lineup. The Dodgers offense has been hit or miss this season, scoring 37 total runs in wins and 3 runs in losses. The numbers average out close to about 6 runs a game, which is good for second in the MLB in scoring. However 34 of the 40 runs have been scored in three games. Those nights where the offense explodes is always nice to see, but I’d trade that for consistency in a heartbeat. Perhaps the team could see more consistent production if they were consistently hitting in a part of the order that they are comfortable with.

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It’s only the first week of the season so there’s no reason to micro-speculate whether Roberts is micro-managing. I’d just like to see a little more consistency with the lineup as we move forward with the year. I think Roberts needs to give his lefties a fair sample size this season to prove they can hit lefties. If Gonzalez continues to struggle then you consider making a more long term play. But until then, I think hitting Franklin Guiterrez 4th is absurd with the amount of talent they have on the roster. Guitierrez was brought in the specifically help their left-handed woes, but does that mean making him the heart of the lineup when a leftie is on the mound? I don’t think so.

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