2 Dodgers offseason decisions that look genius, 2 that look awful

The aptly-named Los Angeles Dodgers have dodged losing as well as any team over the past two seasons. Despite nearly succumbing to the bullish Toronto Blue Jays in perhaps the greatest World Series we’ve seen this century, Los Angeles stood alone when it came time to sit atop baseball’s throne.

It’s a familiar home for the boys in blue, who’ve assumed regal bragging rights over the rest of the league in three of the past six seasons. And while those who get their cleats dirty are largely responsible for L.A.’s paramount success, due diligence is reserved for those writing the players’ checks. 

The Dodgers have been just as elite in offseason negotiations as they have been in high-leverage pitching duels. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the rest of the Dodgers' brass were busy bodies as usual during this past winter, but did this year’s offseason match up to the grandeur of years past?

Signing Kyle Tucker may not have been worth the cost

Let's start with (arguably) the biggest signing of the offseason, period. The Dodgers shook the very foundation of Major League Baseball after signing Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240-million deal this past winter. Tucker's career résumé is one the Dodgers were eager to slot into the middle of their order.

Tucker’s OPS has hovered around .900 on a yearly basis, and he’s hit more than 20 home runs in each of the past five seasons. He carried a 132 wrC+ from 2018-2023, and is one of five position players with a 4+ WAR in each of the last five years (Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, José Ramírez, Mookie Betts).

But he's looked like a shell of himself this season. Tucker is hitting just .240 this season with 6 homers, while his batting value (2) is just above average (61st percentile) and his fielding run value (-3) is far below, per Baseball Savant. Tucker is in the midst of career lows in several statistical categories, including average exit velocity (89 mph) and expected batting average (.247).

Sure, he's got time to turn things around, and a four-game hit streak that includes a three-run homer could point to a trend in the right direction. But L.A.'s deal with Tucker carries extra baggage given that the Dodgers are a Competitve Balance Tax payer. Signing Tucker (who had a qualifying offer in his contract with the Cubs) meant that the squad lost four picks, plus $1 million in international bonus pool money (those are the penalties for signing multiple players with QOs). So far, the juice hasn't been worth the squeeze.

Miguel Rojas was the veteran signing the Dodgers needed

Miguel Rojas is not just the man responsible for one of the most clutch home runs in Dodgers history, but he’s beloved in the organization, and a multi-time Gold Glove Award finalist. Dave Roberts trusts Rojas -- so much so that he stuck with him with his team down to its final two outs despite not getting a hit in a calendar month. The rest, well, we know what happened next.

Rojas' presence and veteran leadership has been incredibly valuable to Dave Roberts the past two seasons. This is his final season, but he’ll stick around the Dodgers in a player development role next season.

Edwin Díaz is turning out to be a whiff ... so far

Edwin Díaz is one of the greatest closers on this side of the year 2000, and his electric trumpet entrance fits L.A. like sunny skies and a 75° day. But Díaz is aging. At 32, his average fastball velocity is down nearly 2 mph, and he’s beginning to show signs of upper-body wear and tear. He's currently on the injured list and began his Dodgers tenure with a 10.50 ERA.

The Dodgers knew Díaz was a sticky signing (pun intended) when they opted to nab him from the free agent market. Recent news of his cockfighting involvement doesn’t bode well for the team’s PR, and it’ll be without four of its top six picks next year because of him and Tucker. Plus, the squad's bullpen has excelled without him. So, was $69 million worth it?

Diaz is an elite strikeouts pitcher, with a strikeout rate that trails just one other pitcher all time (at least 500 innings pitched -- MLB). And while his fastball freezes hitters at a dizzying pace, his slider might be his better pitch (.160 batting average against, 48.8% whiff rate -- MLB).  

Not turning the page on Pages has been a revelation

Who could've foreseen the season that Andy Pages has been having thus far? Though he hit 27 homers last year, Pages has been known as a defensive player throughout his career.

But the 25-year-old has been perhaps the best hitter on a squad loaded with superstars. He's tied for second on the Dodgers in homers with 15, tied for second in the league in RBIs (56), tied for second in WAR (3.6), and has maintained his outstanding defense (1.7 defensive WAR -- tied for 1st in MLB).

Pages was the subject of much speculation surrounding a potential trade after a forgettable postseason at the dish. But Roberts stuck with him as an invaluable centerpiece in center field despite his .078 average.

This year, Pages has not just maintained, he's thrived. And he could be a central fixture in the heart of the Dodgers' order for years to come.

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