numberFire.com Breaks Down The Russell Martin Deal, Did The Dodgers Miss Out?

I’m still kind of bummed that the Dodgers didn’t break the bank and sign catcher and former Dodger Russell Martin. The Blue Jays decided to do it, and beat the Dodgers and other clubs to the punch. There is no doubt that Martin is still a good catcher, that can still hit pretty well. As numberFire.com explains in their latest stat piece, the contract will look mighty good on the front end, but could end up becoming horrific on the back end.

That’s because Toronto decided to say “screw it!” and threw money and caution to the wind by signing Martin to that ridiculous five-year 82 million dollar contract.

The question is, is Martin worth that much money? Will the Blue Jays get return on their investment? And if not then how much is he actually worth? I have no idea, but all I know is that Martin was the only decent catching option available via free agency, and the Dodgers lost out on that.

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John Stolnis points out Martin’s poor batting seasons with the Yankees in New York before he came over to Pittsburgh. He also points out about his batted ball stats being higher than usual, seemingly pointing to the one thing that stat guys love to bring up. LUCK. It’s amazing to me how these stat guys talk like Spock if he were an accountant, yet believe in something as illogical and intangible as luck. But they do, and they seem to think it’s the answer to everything.

Last season Martin certainly proved that he can still hit and play Baseball. The veteran backstop batted .290 with a .402 OBP in 111 games. Martin posted an .832 OPS and blasted 11 home runs, drove in 67 runs, and drew 59 walks in 460 plate appearances in 2014.

Anytime a player has a good year, it’s always “he was lucky!”. I don’t think that Martin’s good year was luck related. I think Martin had trouble adjusting to hitting in the America League at Yankee Stadium. I don’t think he ever adjusted to switching from the National League to the American League. He had never played in the American League before. I think that combined with too much playing time took its toll on his swing, as it got longer and longer. Martin played in over 145 games three seasons in a row from 2007-2009 when he was with the Dodgers.

Anyways, John writes a very good article pointing out why Martin is so good, and how the contract could look very good in the first couple of years, and then possibly turn out very bad over the back part of the five-year deal.

Look Martin is 31 years old and I agree that he’ll probably start to decline soon. He isn’t worth 82 million dollars right? But I would rather take the chance and break the bank on a Russell Martin, then suffer through another season of A.J. Ellis, and Drew Butera hitting below the Mendoza line.

So hey, if anyone has a better idea than Martin, or trading for Miguel Montero, please let me know, I am all ears.