Dodgers Cy Young Candidates

Jun 29, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (right) and Zack Greinke against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Brett Anderson and Mat Latos have pitched phenomenally for the Dod..

Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke have pitched phenomenally for the Dodgers this year. Like seriously. Their numbers are absolutely ridiculous. The fact that one of them will LOSE the Cy Young is incredible. Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom, both of whom are having marvelous seasons, could realistically not receive a first-place vote. Only one of Gerrit Cole/Michael Wacha/Max Scherzer will probably be a top-five Cy Young finisher.

There’s obviously still a month left in the season so a lot can still happen. Maybe Arrieta doesn’t give up another hit this season. Maybe Kershaw and Greinke decide throwing with their dominant arms is too easy, and try experimenting by using their other arm. After sitting through 14 innings of stupid #weirdbaseball on Monday, nothing would surprise me.

But as we all sit right now, fresh off a huge sweep against the Giants, it looks like the Cy Young award will belong to a Dodger pitcher for what should be the fifth consecutive year (WHERE’S R.A. DICKEY NOW HUH??). Let’s take a look at the cases for (and against?) the two Dodgers candidates. This post was originally only going to be about Greinke, and then Kershaw reminded me that he’s still pretty decent.

Next: Literally a 1.59 ERA

Sep 1, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starter Zack Greinke (21) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Case for Zack Greinke

15-3, 1.59 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 235 ERA+, .846 WHIP, 6.1 H/9, .5 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 8.1 SO/9

Besides being the most wonderful human on earth with 80+ grade hair, Greinke has had a season arguably as impressive as Kershaw’s MVP season last year. Greinke isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but his numbers still pop off the page. If I saw a pitcher post a 1.59 ERA on MLB: The Show, I’d probably curse and return that stupid defective game.

The deeper you dig into Greinke’s numbers, the stronger his case becomes. After giving up two runs in eight innings on June 13, Greinke had a 1.95 ERA. That is the highest ERA Greinke has had following any start this season. He’s thrown at least six innings in each of his 27 starts this season. He’s given up five runs in a game twice (in Colorado and Philly) and has given up three runs in a game three times this season. He’s given up two runs in a game three times. In every other start, he’s given up one or zero runs (one run eight times, zero runs 11 times).

The Cy Young is obviously an award for pitching, but in a weird way I think his bat makes his pitching numbers pop more. Opposing batters are slashing .189/.231/.270 against Greinke this year. Greinke himself has a .207/.217/.328 slashline. He’s literally a better hitter than hitters that face him.

Next: Is Greinke Due For Regression? No, but..

Aug 11, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) in the dugout during the first inning of the game against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Case Against Greinke?

This is going to be a short slide.

His FIP is .2.61 and his BABIP is .237. Some people could read into that and thing he’s been riding luck?

He also only has one complete game this season, which I don’t believe even counts because the Dodgers lost on the road so he only had to go eight innings. He clearly doesn’t know how to win games. While DeGrom doesn’t have a CG this year, Kershaw and Arrieta each have three. It should be a moot point, but I tend to not trust voters. Also voters could be dumb and Kershaw and Greinke can split the Dodger vote, opening it up for Arrieta.

Next: Kershaw Is Also Good

September 2, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) reacts following his last strike out for the complete game 2-1 victory against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Case For Kershaw

12-7, 2.18 ERA, 2.02 FIP, 172 ERA+, .897 WHIP, 6.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9, 11.6 K/9

Last year, Kershaw became the first NL pitcher since 1968 to win the NL MVP award. He’s arguably having a better season this year than he did last year. After his May 21st start in San Francisco, Kershaw had a 4.32 ERA. A little more than three months later, and Kershaw’s ERA sits at 2.18. In 71 innings since the all-star game, Kershaw has given up eight runs, walked seven batters and struck out 91 batters.

Since college football kicks off tonight, I’ll pull my other pro-Kershaw argument from there. Kershaw had his “Heisman Moment” last night. In a chance to sweep their division rivals, Kershaw put together a game that rivals his 2014 no-hitter in terms of dominance. He threw a 132-pitch, 15-strikeout game against the Giants to put the Dodgers 6.5 games ahead of them in the west. He ran into trouble in the ninth, but his 130th pitch still hit 95 on the gun and his 132nd struck out Byrd to end the game. Manager Don Mattingly went out to check on him, and I don’t think anyone in the stadium thought Kershaw was coming out of that game. The Giants are a group of professional hitters. While they don’t have a lot of power, they’re very good at putting bat on ball. 35 times last night, a Giants’ hitter swung at a Kershaw pitch and missed like I do in the batting cages. That broke the old record (according to PitchFX) which was also held by Kershaw (and Carlos Carrasco) by five.

Next: Do You Believe in Voter Fatigue?

Aug 12, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Detailed view of Los Angeles Dodgers hat and glove in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

So, Who Wins?

If I had a vote, I think it would go to Greinke. Kershaw has been unreal and is unarguably the best pitcher baseball. But Greinke has had an absolutely unreal season. If he maintained his 1.59 ERA, it would be the fourth lowest ERA in baseball since 1920. Greinke’s ERA hasn’t been above 2.00 after any start this year. Kershaw’s hasn’t been under 2.00 after any start. That’s kind of arbitrary, but also just puts into perspective how great Greinke has been since his first start of the season.

If Greinke finishes with a sub 1.60 ERA, it has to be his. If Kershaw finishes with 300 strikeouts, it kind of has to be his. Both of these things could very well happen. In which case the world burns and I have no idea what to think. Just remember how lucky you are to have these two humans on your favorite team. And if you read this Farhan/Andrew, please keep Greinke. He is great. Thanks.

Who should win the Cy Young? Lets hear it in the comments.

Next: Clayton Kershaw Saved the Season