Dodgers Mets Position-By-Position Breakdown

Jul 26, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) slides to second on his double as Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Jimmy Rollins (11) waits for the ball during the tenth inning at Citi Field. The Mets won 3-2 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

With the Dodgers steamrolling to the playoffs, it’s about time to break down the potential Dodger opponents. I’ll look at the probable starters at each position on the field, the top three starters and the bullpen of each team and make some predictions and it’ll be a lot of fun to look back at it in a month when I was wrong about everything. So let’s begin with the Mets, who the Dodgers will most likely face in the first round barring a few major streaks or collapses. All positions are based on game I’ve seen+ESPN.com’s depth charts. Stats are up to date after the Sept. 16 games and pulled from Baseball Reference or Fangraphs.

Next: Behind The Plate

Sep 4, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets catcher Travis d

Catcher:

LAD Yasmani Grandal– .252/.365/.426, 15 HR, 124 wRC+, 2.4 WAR

NYM Travis d’Arnaud– .293/.360/.551, 12 HR, 152 wRC+, 2.6 WAR

This question is completely reliant on which Grandal shows up for the playoffs. In the first half of the season, Grandal was arguably the best offensive catcher not named Buster. He slashed .282/.404/.526 with 14 homers and 42 walks vs 49 strikeouts and was named to his first all-star team.

Grandal has been battling a shoulder issue and has slumped mightily in the second half. His .195/.295/.239 slashline somehow looks better than he’s actually been playing, as he took a few days off after 11 consecutive hitless games and three total hits in 18 games (55 at bats).

d’Arnaud has been relatively consistent all season, and like most of the Mets has improved in the second half. It’s hard to choose against Grandal, but if he’s not healthy the advantage on this one has to go to the Mets. We’ll call it a push, but it’s probably going to end up being a Mets win.

Advantage: Push (tilts to Mets if Grandal can’t get healthy) (0-0-1)

Next: The Battle of Lefty First Basemen

Sep 12, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) celebrates with third baseman Justin Turner (10) after hitting a solo home run in the third inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

First Base:

LAD Adrian Gonzalez– .280/.356/.493, 27 HR, 133 wRC+, 3.3 WAR

NYM Lucas Duda– .240/.344/.453, 21 HR, 122 wRC+, 2.2 WAR

This isn’t a slight on Duda, who has put together a very solid season. But AGon is painfully consistent. His average is a little lower than usual, but most of his numbers are right around his career averages.

Both first basemen are left-handed, and in limited action against lefties have reverse splits this year. Duda has a .291/.339/.518 slashline against lefties, but that’s aided by a .397 BABIP. His career slashline against lefties is much worse (.229/.302/.359). While Gonzalez’s numbers against lefties are better, they also matter less because unless Steven Matz or Jon Niese start, the Mets don’t have any lefty starters. Duda will have to face a pretty decent one in Clayton Kershaw and either Alex Wood or Brett Anderson.

Having not watched many Mets games this year, I can’t speak very much about Duda defensively. He’s statistically not great when it comes to Defensive Runs Saved (4) and UZR (-.1). Having watched almost all Dodger games this year, I can safely say that AGon is a really good defensive first baseman. DRS and UZR both support that (11 and 3.6, respectively).

I like Duda a lot, but this is a pretty clear-cut decision.

Advantage: Dodgers (1-0-1)

Next: Old Friend at Second Base?

Aug 23, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; New York Mets third baseman Juan Uribe (2) during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Second Base:

LAD Howie Kendrick  .296/.341/.418, 9 HR, 112 wRC+, 2.1 WAR

NYM Juan Uribe .251/.320/.410, 13 HR, 102 wRC+, 1.9 WAR

If depth played a factor, the Mets would probably take this position easily. Dodger fans should be familiar with Uribe, but I’m not even sure if he beats Daniel Murphy and Kelly Johnson for the starting spot. The Mets infield has these two versatile backups that can play at third or shorts as well, and the Dodgers have Chase Utley and maybe hopefully Enrique Hernandez. But looking at two lefty starters for the Dodgers, I would have to guess the Mets go righty-heavy.

Overall, Kendrick has the best stats and his defense is good enough defensively. I’m also usually not a proponent of “playoff experience”, but Utley and Uribe have the most of the bunch, with 46 and 44 career postseason games, respectively.

Overall, it’s really hard to choose a side. Kendrick is the best player of the six, but I think we all know Uribe will have some sort of clutch hit in the postseason. Lets just call this one a push as well.

Advantage: Push (1-0-2)

Next: Do the Dodgers go with Youth or Experience?

Sep 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (5) in the second inning of the game against the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop:

LAD Jimmy Rollins– .220/.279/.355, 13 HR, 77 wRC+, -0.2 WAR

NYM Wilmer Flores– .265/.298/.416, 16 HR, 98 wRC+, 2.1 WAR

The Mets have an advantage if the Dodgers stick with Jimmy, but it gets interesting if Rollins coincidentally fails to get healthy and Corey Seager takes over at shortstop for the next at least 10 years. Rollins and Flores are each not very good against righties, but do much better against lefties (in limited sample size), which helps the Mets more than it helps the Dodgers in this matchup. However, Rollins has destroyed the Mets in the past with a .280/.334/.449 slashline in 1118 plate appearances. He went 5-11 in a four game series in New York with three homers this season.

Seager brings a whole new dimension, as he has been excellent in his short stint with the Dodgers. He’s hitting the ball hard and often, not striking out, working walks and not wasting at bats while playing good defense. For a 21-year-old to look as calm and professional as he has over the last couple weeks has been amazing to see and I don’t think I’ve been this excited for a Dodger rookie since Yasiel Puig  came up. He definitely looks ready to take over at short next year, but he should steal some playing time from Rollins in October.

Advantage: Dodgers if it’s Seager, Mets if it’s Rollins, so let’s call it a push for now (1-0-3)

Next: Turner's Revenge Against the Mets

Sep 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Third Base

LAD Justin Turner– .289/.364/.486, 15 HR, 137 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

NYM David Wright– .303/.377/.431, 3 HR, 133 wRC+, 0.9 WAR (only 26 games)

This is another position that could get complicated with Kelly Johnson or Daniel Murphy getting playing time. But since he’s a righty and a Mets’ legend, I’m going with Wright over them in this series.

Getting cut by the Mets might be the best thing that could have happened to Turner, as he’s been nothing but excellent over the past two years with the Dodgers. Turner has pretty extreme reverse splits (.313/.378/.528 against righties, .221/.324/.368 against lefties) which helps his case against the Mets’ righty-heavy rotation.

Wright has played well in extremely limited time this season due to a spine injury, so it’s kind of a crapshoot as to which Mets infielder will get playing time at third. I’d still take Turner over Wright, Uribe or Murphy, so it’s kind of a moot point.

Advantage: Dodgers (2-0-3)

Next: Left Field

Sep 12, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier (16) singles in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Left Field

LAD Andre Ethier– .294/.366/.482, 13 HR, 135 wRC+, 2.6 WAR

NYM Michael Conforto– .297/.378/.547, 7 HR, 156 wRC+, 1.9 WAR

The classic “veteran having a bounceback year vs the hot up-and-coming prospect” argument. Conforto has been impressive in his limited time as a Met, but Ethier might be the Dodgers’ most consistent offensive threat this year. I haven’t been a fan of Ethier in the past and I’ve been on board with moving him for a couple years, but he’s been absolutely incredible this season and the Dodgers should be thanking their lucky stars that they didn’t trade him for Miguel Montero in the offseason.

The main factor in this matchup is that the Mets have a righty-heavy rotation while the Dodgers will probably be starting two or three lefties. Ethier mashes righties, so while Conforto is and will be a very good outfielder, I have to give the nod to Dre on this one. If Ethier plays in right field (meaning Puig is still hurt), then it’ll probably be Carl Crawford/Scott Van Slyke in left. If the Mets also play matchups, it’ll probably be Yoenis Cespedes in left and Juan Lagares in center which tilts this to the Mets advantage.

Advantage: Dodgers if it’s Ethier, Push if it’s Crawford, Mets if it’s SVS (hopefully 3-0-3)

Next: YO IS NOT THE MVP

Sep 14, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets center fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) rounds the bases on his home run to left during the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Center Field

LAD Joc Pederson– .217/.355/.433, 25 HR, 121 wRC+, 2.9 WAR

NYM Yoenis Cespedes– .294/.330/.555, 35 HR, 139 wRC+, 6.8 WAR

As much as I love Joc  this one is no contest. Cespedes is in the MVP discussion(which I think is ridiculous, but he’ll probably get some votes). Cespy has been very good all season but has taken it to another level as a Met. He’s still not even close to Bryce Harper so don’t even try to argue that he’s the MVP, but he’s definitely the most dangerous player on the Mets roster.

Like I said in the previous slide, if Cespy moves to left he gives the Mets the advantage there, but it gives the Dodgers the advantage in center with Joc over Lagares. Yoenis will probably have the advantage no matter where he plays, so this one is pretty easy.

Advantage: Mets (3-1-3)

Next: Please Be Healthy Puig

Jun 29, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (right) and Zack Greinke against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Rotation

LAD Clayton Kershaw/Zack Greinke/Brett Anderson

NYM Jacob deGrom/Noah Syndergaard/Matt Harvey?

In a five-game series, I’m assuming each team uses three starters.  Situations could lead to Alex Wood or Jon Niese/Steven Matz/Bartolo Colon starting, but this will just look at the top three.

deGrom is absolutely fantastic, but Kershaw and Greinke are both in a league of their own and with like two exceptions, there’s no one else I would want to start a game for my team. Syndergaard and Harvey each come with qualms. Syndergaard has been as good as deGrom at Citi Field, but has been pretty pedestrian in 11 road starts (4.41 ERA). Harvey comes with his whole pitch limit fiasco and might not even be available in the postseason (although I would be shocked if he doesn’t pitch). As a staff, I give the advantage to the Dodgers. To break it down further, I’m taking Kershaw and Greinke over anyone the Mets throw, and any of these three Mets pitchers over Anderson or Wood. Unless Colon starts. Then Colon wins. Always.

Advantage: Dodgers (5-1-3)

Next: Oh Good the Bullpens

Sep 14, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Jeurys Familia (27) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. New York Mets won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Bullpen

LAD-Chris Hatcher, J.P. Howell, Luis Avilan, Yimi Garcia, Juan Nicasio, Pedro Baez, Kenley Jansen

NYM-Addison Reed, Erik Goeddel, Alex Torres, Sean Gilmartin, Hansel Robles, Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia

I have no idea which relievers will actually make postseason rosters on each teams, so I chose the seven from each team that I would probably take just by looking at stats. Since each team won’t be carrying five starters, there will be a few others.

Whatever way you slice it, this will probably be the Mets’ biggest advantage. The Mets have the ninth lowest bullpen ERA (3.35) while the Dodgers rank 21st (3.97). While Jansen is dominant for the Dodgers, Familia has quietly been just as dominant for the Mets.

The Dodgers pen leads all of baseball in K/9, but all other stats are towards the bottom of the league. If everything is going right, Jansen, Hatcher and Yimi can strike out the side and call it a day. They should be dominant, but since April they just haven’t been trustworthy.

I still believe in the Dodgers bullpen a lot more than most, but the Mets have a clear advantage here. In what could be a very closely contested series, the Dodgers bullpen might be their undoing.

Advantage: Mets (5-2-3)

Next: So Who Wins?

Jul 24, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Howie Kendrick (47) scores past New York Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki (22) during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Overall

On paper, the Dodgers are the better team. The Mets have been hot, and as the Giants and Royals proved last year the better team on paper doesn’t always win in the postseason. Baseball playoffs are such a random animal and if the Mets stay scorching though October, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Mets take this best-of-5 series.

However, it’s pretty hard to vote against Kershaw and Greinke in a series where they could realistically pitch in four of five games. So give me the Dodgers in five, which will make it even more heartbreaking when Uribe hits the inevitable walk-off homer to end the Dodger season.