Grading the Dodgers: Rotation

Sep 7, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) and starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) and catcher A.J. Ellis (17) in the dugout during the seventh of the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

It’s time to start grading the key players from the 2015 Dodgers. For the rotation, I’ll grade the seven pitchers that made five or more starts for the Dodgers in 2015. They’ll be graded on how they performed for their time as a Dodger (Alex Wood and Mat Latos won’t be graded based on Atlanta/Miami) and I’ll look at their outlook for next season.

Next: Ace Number One

Oct 13, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) reacts after the seventh inning against the New York Mets in game four of the NLDS at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Clayton Kershaw: A+

Being a teacher is easy. Kershaw gets an A+ because he very well could win the Cy Young this year.

For his first nine starts, some of Kershaw’s numbers were extremely troubling. He was 2-3 with a 4.32 ERA in his first nine starts, which prompted this.

Further research indicated that Kershaw was probably fine. In his first nine starts, one of every five fly balls Kershaw gave up left the park. While his ERA was high, his FIP and xFIP remained under 3.00, so it seemed like something Kershaw could turn around. And boy, did he.

Over his next 24 starts, Kershaw had a 1.39 ERA, 1.69 FIP and 2.02 xFIP. He got his home run rate under control and the BABIP against him dropped by almost .100 points. He somehow rose his K/9 from 11.26 in his first nine starts to 11.77 in his next 24, and he finished off the season with literally 301 strikeouts. His final ERA was 2.13 with a 1.99 FIP and a 2.01 xFIP.

There’s like a 99.99 percent chance Kershaw is back next season. In MLB: The Show, my created player is on the Dodgers and they just traded Kershaw for Miguel Cabrera, so weird things COULD happen. But probably not. He’ll be back and barring injury, he’ll be the Opening Day starter.

Next: Ace Number Two

October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) returns to the dugout after being relieved in the seventh inning against New York Mets in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Zack Greinke: A+

Maybe I’m just too easy of a teacher?

Greinke, much like Kershaw, has a pretty good shot at winning the Cy Young. They did it in completely different ways, but they both put together historic seasons.

Kershaw kind of struggled out of the gate, while Greinke never really did. He gave up five runs in two starts. He gave up three or fewer in his other 30 starts, including 21 starts giving up zero or one run. The highest ERA he had after a start was 1.95. Greinke only struck out 200 batters, but his consistency from April to October was incredible. You pretty much knew the Dodgers had a chance to win every game he started, and they won 23 of the 32 games he threw, including both of the games in which he allowed five runs.

Greinke’s 2016 outlook is a lot less obvious that Kershaw’s. He has an opt-out in his contract that he will more than likely exercise, making him a free agent. He said kind things about the Dodger organization and signs point to him being open to returning, but with a top-heavy free agent pitching market, it’s far from a sure thing that he will be back. If I were a betting man, I would put money on him returning in 2016, but I also don’t see this front office paying an irresponsible amount of money to a pitcher in potentially his age-37 season. I do expect him to return in 2016, but if he hasn’t, it’s been an honor.

Next: A Surprising 31 Starts from Anderson

Sep 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Brett Anderson (35) throws the ball in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Brett Anderson: B

Anderson gets extra credit for surviving the season. He started 31 games this season, after starting 32 in the four previous years combined. The Dodgers took a flier on him in the offseason with a meaningless one-year, $10 million contract and he gave them 180 solid innings.

While he understandably fell off as the season went on, Anderson still ended the season with a respectable 3.69 ERA (3.94 FIP). He had the highest ground ball rate baseball has seen since 2006 and if it weren’t for a very high 17 percent home run/fly ball rate, it could have been an even better year for Anderson.

Anderson was signed as a fifth starter and injuries led to him being the third starter for most of the season. He wasn’t spectacular, especially compared to Greinke and Kershaw, but imagine how awful the rotation would have been if Anderson went down as well?

Anderson will likely get and decline a qualifying offer, making him a free agent. He also very well could come back on a slightly longer+slightly more expensive contract, and if he walks the Dodgers get a draft pick out of it.

Next: Surprise of the Season?

Sep 30, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Carlos Frias (77) throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Frias: C

Frias started 13 games for the Dodgers this year. I definitely did not remember this until writing this piece.

For the most part, Frias was OK. He gave up seven runs in his first four starts and threw six innings of one-run ball against the Giants. He gave up 10 runs in four innings against the Padres, which inflated his ERA, but he gave up three or fewer runs in 10 of his 13 starts. He came back from an injury in September and allowed a run in eight innings of relief.

He finished the season with 13 starts and 17 total appearances. In 77 2/3 innings, he put up a 4.06 ERA and 4.32 FIP, but his strikeouts were way down from last year (5.0/9, compared to 8.1/9 in 2014).

Overall, Frias was pretty forgettable. He’s still young and pre-arb, so he might be a decent bullpen piece and occasional spot starter.

Next: A Decent Trade Deadline Move

October 2, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Alex Wood (57) pitches the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Wood: C-

The Dodgers traded very little and got a lot back from the Braves. They traded Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez and four minor leaguers at the deadline, and got back Wood, Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza from the Braves, as well as two other players from the Marlins. It’s hard to call the trade a failure because it’s not like the Braves got the better side of it, and the Dodgers got a useful reliever and two good young players.

Wood has been a solid starter for the Braves, but this was his worst season so far and his 12 starts with the Dodgers did not go too well. He posted a 4.35 ERA (4.10 FIP) in 12 Dodger starts and while he’s been a second/third starter in Atlanta, he was pretty disappointing as a Dodger.

In August, Wood was pretty consistently mediocre. He gave up 16 runs in six August starts and never got through seven innings. His September was a lot less balanced, as he gave up no runs in two starts, two runs in two starts, and gave up six and eight runs in starts. He had his two best Dodger starts in September, but also had his two worst starts of the season in the month. He showed promise and then he showed the ability to get rocked.

Wood turns 25 in January and is still pre-arb, so he’ll probably be back next year. With hopefully another ace next to Kershaw, combined with hopefully Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy returning, Wood could be the best number five starter in baseball. Worst case scenario, Wood could probably be a deadly lefty reliever out of the bullpen, but I’d feel comfortable about him as a fifth starter.

Next: The Awful Trade Deadline Move

Sep 11, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Mat Latos reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Mat Latos: F-

Latos (and Michael Morse) was the other part of the Dodger deadline deal, as they traded three minor leaguers for him and Morse. Again, hard to call it a failure because the three minor leaguers probably won’t amount to much, but the Latos experiment was not good.

Latos made five starts for the Dodgers. His first went pretty well, as he held the Angels to one run in six innings. Then, WOOF. He didn’t get past the fifth inning in any of his other four starts, and he gave up 17 earned runs in his next 18 1/3 innings. He got skipped for a start, got pulled early and complained about it, and was overall just awful in his Dodger tenure. He got DFA’d and picked up by the Angels.

Latos is a free agent and I’m pretty confident the Dodgers won’t be signing him. Again, stranger things have happened, but he’ll probably sign a cheap contract and pitch semi-decently. Another team might take a chance on him, but the attitude issues and bad pitching probably ensures he won’t be back in LA next year.

Next: Overall Grade

Apr 10, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu (99) looks on prior to the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Overall: B-

The Dodgers still finished the season with the fifth-best team ERA and the second best ERA for starting pitchers (3.24). It’s hard to really complain about that, but that number is extremely skewed by Kershaw and Greinke. They were the best 1-2 punch in baseball, but after them the Dodgers struggled to find consistency and starting pitching was an issue.

It should be better next year with health. If Greinke isn’t brought back, the Dodgers will probably make a move for another co-ace. Ryu and McCarthy should be back at some point and will make the rotation that much deeper. Most importantly, Latos won’t be there, so we can all celebrate that.

Next: Positives and Negatives of the 2015 Season