Dodgers Look to Rays for Starting Help

With the Hisashi Iwakuma deal nixed, Dodgers accelerate their search for starting pitching

The starting rotation has been the most frequently discussed topic here over the last few weeks as the Dodgers continue to look for ways to bolster their rotation. The Dodgers thought they had found some quality innings in Hisashi Iwakuma, however an undisclosed issue with his physical meant the Dodgers ultimately passed on the right-hander. As a result, the Dodgers have seemingly put their search for starting pitching on the fast track.

More from Dodgers Way

• Giants sign former Dodgers pitcher in another move that’ll get them nowhere
• Kevin Kiermaier being ‘top target’ to replace Cody Bellinger is bad sign for Dodgers
• Are the Dodgers really prepared to hand Shohei Ohtani a blank check?
• Dodgers fans shouldn’t dismiss interest in Dansby Swanson for this reason
• Giants laughably sign pitcher that Dodgers absolutely own

Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers have been in discussions with the Tampa Bay Rays about a potential deal for one of their starters with Jake Odorizzi being the name most frequently mentioned. This comes on the back of reports that the Dodgers have expressed interest in Rays relievers Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee, leading many to speculate that the Dodgers could push for both a starter and a reliever. Alex has already covered the Dodgers interest in the relievers, so today I will shift the focus towards the Rays starters.

While the jewel of Tampa’s starting rotation is undoubtedly the young Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore are also very repectable pitchers in their own right. For his career, Archer owns a 32-32 record with a 3.23 ERA. However, in his age 26 season, Archer broke out to establish himself as one of the games very best starters going 12-13 with a 3.33 ERA and a whopping 252 strikeouts in 212 IP. And here’s the kicker… Archer is signed through to 2020 at just $4.25M per year with team options for 2020 and 2021. I think it goes without saying that any deal for Archer would require quite a haul.

Odorizzi is slightly younger than Archer at 25 and has pitched well in his first two full seasons in the Major Leagues. Odorizzi is not the ace that Archer is but he would undoubtedly serve as a quality young arm in the middle of any rotation. Not a hard thrower, Odorizzi has posted a surprisingly strong 8.4 strike outs per nine over his career. The young right-hander also comes with plenty of control as he won’t even be arbitration eligible until next winter, giving the Dodgers 4 years of control.

Matt Moore would be the cheapest of the three, having just 2 years of control remaining and coming of a trying return from Tommy John surgery. The former All-Star appeared to struggle to regain his velocity early in his return but it bounced back (along with his results) over his final few starts. It would seem counter-productive to target Moore as the primary return in a deal but he could serve as a very nice, high upside throw in to help facilitate a deal.

Now that we’ve very briefly touched on each potential target, let’s take a look at what a potential deal might cost.

Archer is one of the premier young pitchers in the game and is on one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball. There is also no indication that the rays are actively shopping their ace so they would likely have to be overwhelmed to consider moving him. Obviously the first piece that would have to be involved here is Julio Urias. Whilst as a general rule I am against moving Urias, trading 6 years of Urias for 6 years of Archer seems like a no-brainer to me. The second piece to move in such a deal would likely be the newly acquired Frankie Montas. On the surface, it appears he was acquired to be included as part of a bigger trade so why not for Archer? The inclusion of those two pieces likely gets the conversation started from Tampa Bay’s point of view but they would likely need more to soften the blow of losing their talented ace.

If the Dodgers happened to sign another mid-rotation arm out of free agency then, then the addition of Archer would leave a surplus in the Dodgers rotation. In such a case, the Dodgers could add in Alex Wood who would help offset the loss of Archer in the short term. I would speculate that such a package would likely get a deal done for Archer, however, the Dodgers may not choose to stop there. The Dodgers could look to bolster the bullpen by adding a reliever to the return. In such a case, the Dodgers could add in Alex Guerrero (and obviously some cash) to  pry either Jake McGee or Brad Boxberger free. Guerrero has the pop to serve as a DH and would likely be an upgrade for the Rays over Logan Morrison. If the Dodgers chose not to delve into free agency then other minor league pieces such as Grant Holmes or Yadier Alvarez could get involved.

The return for Odorizzi may be a little harder to judge. It’s not exactly clear yet where his ceiling is and thanks to our friends in Arizona, the market for young starting pitching is all over the shop. However his age, control and solid performance over the last two seasons means that Tampa Bay will undoubtedly be looking for a strong return. While the Rays will probably still ask for the likes of Urias, the flame throwing Frankie Montas is perhaps a more suitable centre piece. More will obviously have to be added and fellow young starters Wood and Grant Holmes would likely be requested. If the cost did turn out to be this high, I would suggest it would be wise for the Dodgers to pass on such a deal as they might be better served by adding another piece and trading for a true top of the rotation starter.

Punters have already placed the Dodgers odds of winning it all in 2016 at 16/1 and the addition of a reliable arm such as Odorizzi or Archer could do wonders for those odds. One thing appears abundantly clear, the Dodgers are poised to make a serious splash on the trade market.