The Dodgers Next Move Should Be in the Bullpen

The Dodgers finally seem to have a rotation that everyone is content with, so now it’s time to upgrade the bullpen.

In record time, the Dodgers went from “oh God, Brett Anderson is their number two starter” to Anderson possibly being their fifth starter, like it should be.

The Dodgers shored up their rotation and that doesn’t appear to be a concern anymore. They have six not-Clayton Kershaw pitchers for four spots, one coming back hopefully coming back around the All-Star break, and three prospects that would probably have a chance to win a spot in the opening day rotation on other teams.

So now, we complain about something else. The bullpen. Last years’ bullpen wasn’t nearly as bad as we all thought it was, but it was far from a strength of the team. The bullpen ERA (3.91) was the 12th-worst in the majors and their LOB percentage was 13th-worst in baseball. Those are pretty much the only stats the bullpen was below-average in. The bullpen WAR last year was 4.5, which was the eighth-best in baseball. The FIP (3.43) and xFIP (3.50) were the fifth and third best in baseball, respectively. Second-highest K/9 rate, seventh-lowest BB/9 rate. The main undoing was that the Dodger pen had the third-highest BABIP in baseball at .317, only a point lower than the Phillies and Rockies bullpens (both of which pitch most of their games in extremely hitter-friendly parks) and had the eighth most losses in baseball.

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All of this came with closer Kenley Jansen on the DL until mid-May and Chris Hatcher having a Jekyll and Hyde type of season. The Dodgers used 21 different pitchers in relief last year, and having 18 2/3 innings less of Jim Johnson and 10 innings less of Eric Surkamp and Chin-hui Tsao should help the bullpen have better numbers this year.

If things go according to plan (feel like I’m saying this a lot this offseason), the core of the bullpen should include Jansen, Hatcher, J.P. Howell and Luis Avilan as locks. They’re slightly less-than-locks, but Yimi Garcia and Pedro Baez will likely round out that group, with a starting pitcher like Alex Wood perhaps getting a look as a reliever. That’s seven (possibly eight), and that seems like a good starting point for a bullpen. Jansen, Hatcher, Garcia and Baez are all high-strikeout guys and Howell is a great LOOGY that gets in trouble against righties. Avilan is another solid lefty that has reverse-splits when it comes to batting average, but gives up roughly similar OBP’s and SLG’s against lefties and righties.

Taking that bullpen to opening day is far from the worst idea in the world, but it would still feel mighty nice if the Dodgers had another stud at the back-end of the bullpen. They tried, as Aroldis Chapman would have helped a lot. I thought up this piece with the Nationals’ Drew Storen in mind, but he was traded a few days ago for Ben Revere. The free agency pool is sort of tapped out, but there’s still some talent there.

Tyler Clippard is probably the best reliever available and the only free agent that really interests me. He frequently outpitches his mediocre FIPs and has pitched in at least 70 innings in each of the last six seasons (four of which he’s had a sub-3.00 ERA. Reliever ERA is mainly pointless, but Clippard is still really good). His K rate dropped pretty sharply last season which is concerning, but Clippard has a track record as a really good late-inning guy. Unfortunately, this means he’ll probably be expensive, and the Dodgers have been burned by high-priced relievers recently. MLB Trade Rumors previously predicted he would sign a three year, $16M contract, which I would absolutely be OK with. They predicted the same contract for Joakim Soria, and he ended up signing for three years, $25M. They also were low on Darren O’Day‘s projection.

After Clippard, Matt Albers might be the best reliever available in free agency? Albers has quietly been solid since 2012, but he’ll be 32 in January and his recent success, especially from last year, seems more like an outlier. There are trade options out there, but it would probably be better for the Dodgers to pay in money than in prospects. Someone like Jake McGee or Brad Boxberger from Tampa would undoubtably improve the bullpen, and their ages (both under 30) makes them a lot more enticing than Clippard (31 on Feb. 14), but the prospect cost will likely be high. If Tampa wants good starting pitching, the Dodgers have a lot of that and adding Frankie Montas lessens the blow if they have to trade a Jose De Leon or Grant Holmes (or allows Montas to take their place in a trade). Trading top prospects for relief pitching isn’t my favorite thing in the world, but the Dodgers might not have a choice if they want a huge upgrade in the pen.

The Dodgers could easily take this roster, as it stands, into Spring Training and I wouldn’t be concerned. I’d be shocked if this FO sat on a team for two months without making a move, but the Dodgers are in good shape this season and in GREAT shape moving forward. If they add a reliever, maybe add a second baseman and jettison Alex Guerrero into space, this offseason will be complete.

Also bring me him.