Who Should Lead Off For The Dodgers in 2016?

Many fans believe the Dodgers haven’t had a true leadoff hitter since Dee Gordon was traded. Many fans are also somewhat confused at what a leadoff hitter is supposed to do.

I had the idea to write this post a few days ago, when I logged onto Twitter and saw that Dustin Nosler of Dodgers Digest wrote about this exact thing making essentially the same arguments I was going to.

Nosler points out that being a leadoff hitter isn’t 100 percent about speed, which I could not agree more with. I don’t want a turtle leading off, but it shouldn’t be a spot designated for the fasted 60 yard dash on the team. I’d weigh on-base skills equally as important in determining the ideal leadoff hitter.

Just weighing those two factors, Joc Pederson would be my top candidate for Dodgers leadoff hitter in 2016. Except I’d really rather prefer him hit lower in the lineup. Joc drew a walk in 15.7 percent of his at-bats last season, which was the sixth-highest walk rate among qualified position players in all of baseball. Despite a terrible .210 batting average, Joc still got on base at a .346 clip. Compare that to Gordon, who hit a very high .333, but only got on base at a .356 clip. Very good OBP, but not as impressive considering he only walked 3.8 percent of the time.

Pederson didn’t really show much on the basepaths last year, stealing only four bases in 11 attempts. Pederson stole at least 26 bases in each of his four minor league seasons, topping out at 31 in 2013. However, a 29.1 percent strikeout rate (fifth highest among qualified batters in baseball) and a 66.8 percent contact rate (second lowest among qualified batters in baseball) really keeps him from being a leadoff candidate at this point in his career. It might be a tad insulting for him, but letting Joc hit eighth in front of the pitcher should give him the opportunity to maximize walks and hopefully see fewer pitches to strike out on.

If his hamstring is healthy enough for it, my ideal leadoff guy would be Yasiel Puig. Despite his struggles last year, he’s arguably the most dynamic bat in the Dodger lineup. He historically gets on base at a good clip (.391 and .382 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, .322 last season), but only has 25 steals in his three major league seasons. His speed hasn’t been the issue, as FanGraphs has him listed with 70 speed on a 20-80 scale. I believe he’s fast enough and a good enough hitter to handle hitting leadoff (if his body doesn’t betray him like last year). He just needs to work on staying on the field and when he’s on base, getting good reads and making wise decisions. He seemed to be getting his TOOTBLAN’s under control over the last couple seasons, so if he can keep progressing he could be a 20+ steal guy.

On a team without a clearcut leadoff hitter, I also believe the best hitters should hit as high as possible in the lineup just so they can get more at bats, so Puig would also fit in nicely for that reason. He probably profiles better as a middle-of-the-order bat, but it makes more sense to bat Puig leadoff than, say, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Turner or Howie Kendrick, three of the best bats on the team.

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As Nosler said in his post, there probably won’t be one answer for the Dodgers’ leadoff question. Against lefties, Enrique Hernandez very well could be the best option. If he shows better contact ability, Joc would probably be the best option. But until that happens, my vote goes to Puig.