Dodgers 2016 Season Previews: Pedro Baez

For our next season preview, Dodgers reliever Pedro Baez.

With the rise of the Kansas City Royals and the increased value placed on quality relievers, one might reasonably ask what the 2016 Dodger bullpen is going to look like. One of the more intriguing late-inning relief options for the Dodgers is 27-year-old right-hander Pedro Baez.

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2015 Recap

One of the big talking points for the Dodgers last season was the bullpen. Opinions were raised regarding the effectiveness of said bullpen. Not all of them were positive. Some opinions were actually, in fact, negative.

Ok they were all negative.

But while the 2015 iteration of the Dodger bullpen had its share of problems, one of those problems was not Pedro Baez. While Baez had a solid 3.35 ERA and 1.1 WHIP for the season after pitching in a total of 52 games, the numbers suggest that he actually had an even better season. His excellent 2.51 FIP demonstrates his ability to strike guys out while limiting walks and home runs. He also had an above average BABIP of .326, which suggests that opposing pitchers were a little bit lucky when facing him.

Overall Baez used his high 90s fastball to very good effect, proving to be one of the better, more reliable relievers the team had last year. With one notable exception.

However unfairly, Pedro Baez’s 2015 season will be remembered in large part for what happened in the playoffs. In game one of the NLDS, with the Dodgers down 1-0 with the bases loaded, Baez came on to face David Wright… who proceeded to single home two pivotal runs.

I for one am betting on Baez to put that behind him in 2016 and be the solid reliever he was for most of last season.

2016 Role and Steamer projections

Baez will be counted on this year to help solidify the back end of the Dodgers bullpen. Injuries and inconsistent performances forced the Dodgers to rely on a host of different players to get the ball to Kenley Jansen last year. In 2016, with another year under their belts, converted position players Pedro Baez and Chris Hatcher will look to take a step forward and become big contributors late in games.

Steamer projects another solid season for Baez, with a 3.13 ERA and .4 WAR in 45 innings-pitched. These are pretty good numbers for a reliever, but I expect him to surpass them. Baez has put up solid numbers after having spent most of his career as an infielder, so when he eventually figures out how to be a pitcher it is going to be a scary prospect for opposing offenses.

What Could Go Wrong?

Well, he’s a Dodger, so injuries could happen. But lets not dwell on that.

Baez’s biggest problem is command. If his command takes a step back in 2016, the Dodgers might be in for some trouble. Dave Roberts is going to be counting on Baez to have a solid season and hopefully form a dominant late-inning trio alongside Kenley Jansen and Chris Hatcher. But if Baez is unable to limit walks, he’s going to potentially put those other guys in some tough positions.

What Could Go Right?

If Baez’s command can get worse, it can also get better right? If Baez starts to master this aspect of pitching, look out MLB. With a fastball that has been clocked as high as 100mph, if he can learn to pitch with better command he’s going to be really, really good. Armed with two elite closers, the Dodgers would be an extremely tough proposition come playoff time.