Dodgers 2016 Season Preview: Chris Hatcher

Next up in our series of season previews, Chris Hatcher

Chris Hatcher came over to the Dodgers from the Miami Marlins in the polarizing Dee Gordon trade. Starting out the 2015 season as the fill-in for closer Kenley Jansen, Hatcher would take the long way to cementing himself as the set-up man, and looks to fill that same role in 2016.

2015 Recap

The 31 year-old Hatcher got the call to replace closer Kenley Jansen when Jansen began the year on the DL due to foot surgery. His Dodger career started off on the right foot when he tallied a save by shutting down the Padres on Opening Day. After that though, it’s hard to pick a word to describe his performance. Disastrous probably comes closest. After a few hard to watch outings against the Padres and Diamondbacks his ERA skyrocketed, and it would hover around double digits until the end of April.

He whittled that ERA down to 5.02, the lowest mark he’d had since Opening Day, before giving up five runs in four appearances. Two of those appearances saw him pulled without recording an out. He would eventually go on the disabled list with a strained oblique and miss time from mid-June until making his return on August 15 against the Cincinnati Reds.

From then on though, he was exactly the guy the Dodgers thought they were trading for and more. After his return from the DL, he’d post a 1.31 ERA in 20.2 innings of work. His strikeouts per nine innings went up from 9.3 to 11.3, and he’d only give up three earned runs the rest of the season. The night and day results are thought to be due to better pitch selection. According to Brooks Baseball, he used his fastball around 65 percent of the time in April, May, and June. After returning from injury, he’d use his fastball 49 percent of the time. He replaced the fastballs with a cutter that hadn’t seen use in either April or May. By the end of the season, he had trimmed his ERA down to more tolerable 3.69 and had earned the eighth inning role.

2016 Role and Steamer Projections

Hatcher figures to have the eighth inning job on lock to begin the season. Assuming we see the same performance as we saw pre-injury, don’t expect his role to change. If he does struggle, it wouldn’t be surprising for new manager Dave Roberts to handle it the same way Don Mattingly did by sticking him in low leverage spots and hoping he figures it out.

Fortunately for Hatcher and the Dodgers, Steamers likes his chances to build on his late 2015 success. He projects to finish 2016 with a 3.21 ERA and a 3.32 FIP in 65 innings. All that should net him 0.6 WAR.

What Could Go Wrong?

The second half of Hatcher’s 2015 season gave plenty of reason for optimism going forward. That being said, there’s obviously a chance that first half Hatcher shows up again. His post-injury performance and Steamer projections don’t leave much room to complain, but the usual “relievers are notoriously volatile” caveat applies here, and Hatcher’s relatively short track record of success is something to keep in mind.

Next: 2016 Season Preview: Pedro Baez

What Could Go Right?

If Hatcher can keep his late summer run going, it would go a long way in stabilizing a bullpen that many fans are pretty skeptical of. The projections look good and his FIP the last two years points to the conclusion that he’s been even better than his ERA says. All things considered, Hatcher looks like he could be the most reliable reliever the Dodgers have after Kenley Jansen. In a bullpen filled with upside plays like Yimi Garcia and Pedro Baez, the Dodgers might need him to be just that.