Predicting the Dodgers 25 Man Roster
With Opening Day Just Days Away, It’s Time to Take a Look at Who Will Make the Dodgers 25 Man Squad
The winter was long, largely disappointing and unnecessarily stressful. Trades and signings fell through, there were domestic violence investigations, manager firings and hirings. By the end of it the Dodgers had an almost entirely new Coaching Staff two-fifths of a new rotation and the core of the reigning division champs returning. The buzz and excitement of Spring Training soon wore off as the injuries piled up and the Dodgers now have several key questions left to answer. Nevertheless, let’s get predicting.
Next: The Starters
The Starters
C Yasmani Grandal – There’s a chance that some lingering forearm issues force him to the DL to start the year however, the injury is considered minor enough that I feel comfortable placing him here. Note- A.J Ellis almost certainly gets the start on Opening Day as he continues to serve as Clayton Kershaw‘s personal catcher.
1B Adrian Gonzalez – Was there really any doubt? One of the most reliable producers in the game, Gonzalez remains a legitimate power threat in the middle of the Dodgers order. Gonzalez has surpassed 150 games and 80 RBI’s in every season since he broke out in 2006 and the Dodgers will be relying on more of the same if they wish to win it all in 2016.
2B Howie Kendrick – Another injury concern, Kendrick will likely receive the lion’s share of playing time at second this year. Kendrick has dealt with nagging hamstring and groin injuries the last season plus, likely a sign that age is starting to catch up to the 32 year old. The Dodgers will be hoping Kendrick can regain a step or two on defense after an uncharacteristic down year with the glove in 2015.
3B Justin Turner – Turner has quietly emerged as one of the best pure hitters in the National League over his last 3 seasons in LA – Turner’s 4.0 WAR in 2015 was good for 6th in the NL amongst 3rd baseman last year. Off-Season knee surgery couldn’t slow turner as he was 14-24 entering yesterdays exhibition against the Angels.
SS Corey Seager – Seager enters the year as the seemingly unanimous pick for NL Rookie of the Year. I don’t think anyone questions that the bat is elite and despite his size Seager seemed to handle Shortstop quite well. At Just 21, Seager appears poised to be one of the most productive shortstops in baseball.
LF Carl Crawford – Crawford is undoubtedly the beneficiary of the injury to Andre Ethier here. Crawford’s skills look to be well into decline after missing ample time to injuries of his own the last few seasons. With Ethier expected to return later in the year, the Dodgers may simply choose to cut ties with the 4 time All-Star later in the year.
CF Joc Pederson – After a well publicized second half slump, Pederson had to make some changes. Most notably Pederson entered camp with a new stance which earned plenty of attention. The strikeouts are still there – they always will be – but if Pederson can continue to make contact the way he has in spring we maybe watching somewhat of a resurgence.
RF Yasiel Puig – Puig was limited to just 79 games last year as hamstring troubles forced him in and out of the lineup. He’s reportedly lost 20 lbs over the off-season and looks much more athletic entering the 2016 season. Puig looks to have taken more than a step forward with his maturity and the ‘Wild Horse’ may be ready to set the world on fire once again
Next: What's Left of the Rotation
The Rotation
1 Clayton Kershaw – If there are ever any concerns about the rotation, having Clayton Kershaw take the ball every 5th day all but quells them. Kershaw has gotten off to a slow start in each of the last two seasons but has looked much better than previous springs. The Dodgers desperately need him to stay healthy this year
2 Scott Kazmir – A newcomer to the Dodgers rotation the Dodgers are betting $48M that Kazmir can pitch like a legitimate #2 starter. His velocity was well down earlier in the spring but was consistently touching 90+ in his most recent start against the Angels.
3 Kenta Maeda – Maeda, Japan’s Kershaw, has been great in spring. The two time winner of Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young, Maeda has had hitters off-balance all spring with his plus command of a 4 pitch arsenal. There are some questions about his elbow and he lack a true plus pitch but there is plenty to like here.
4 Alex Wood – Reports coming into spring were that Alex Wood had been working all spring to re-tune some mechanics that had been gradually declining over the last two years, singling out a higher release point as a key focus. Well with a Springs worth of data we now know that Wood’s endeavors were successful and he has been rewarded with a significant boost in fastball velocity, making his secondary offerings that much more effective.
5 Carlos Frias – One of the few questions left on this roster, the battle for the 5th starter role has narrowed down to one of either Frias or Ross Stripling. I’m giving Frias the nod at least initially due to his experience and the upside inherent in his mid-90’s fastball.
Next: Bench Squad
The Bench
Chase Utley INF – The threat of suspension never eventuated for Utley and the Dodgers re-signed the veteran infielder to provide some depth off the bench this year. His defense at both second and third have passed the eye test so far this spring and hopefully being another year removed from some knee problems will help bring some life back to his bat.
Scott Van Slyke OF– After popping up in nearly 20% of his at bats last year, seeing the sizeable outfielder pop out with runners in scoring position may lead me to pull all my hair out. Van Slyke however, owns a career 142 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.
AJ Ellis C – If it weren’t for Ellis’ relationship with Kershaw then I would be more than a little tempted to cut Ellis given the presence of Austin Barnes. However, Ellis isn’t that far removed from being one of the better catchers in the NL so a return to form at the plate could be a big boost for the Dodgers off the bench.
Austin Barnes C/INF – Acquired in the Dee Gordon trade last off-season, Barnes has done nothing but hit in the minors. He has continued to hit this Spring and signs of some power are starting to emerge. Barnes is also regarded as an elite pitch framer. Barnes is more than a one trick pony however also representing an option at 2nd and 3rd.
Enrique Hernandez INF/OF – The Dodgers super utility, expect to see Hernandez in the lineup in some capacity most days. Hernandez crushed lefties to the tune of a ridiculous 234 wRC+ in 2015. Expect that figure to regress some but its clear that Hernandez can flat out rake against lefties.
Next: The Bullpen
The Bullpen
The bullpen has been something of an Achilles heel for the Dodgers the last few seasons however, the Dodgers passed up on a number of notable names on the relief market this winter. Joe Blanton resurrected his career as a reliever in a year split between the Pirates and Royals and will now serve as the Dodgers long man. Louis Coleman was a NRI this spring but his side-arm delivery gives the Dodgers an entirely different look to anyone currently in the ‘pen – It wouldn’t be surprising to see hom setting up Kenley Jansen at some point. Hard-throwing right-handers Yimi Garcia, Pedro Baez and Chris Hatcher all return in 2016 and the Dodgers are betting on their continued development to solidify this staff. Noticeably, Luis Avilan misses the cut having looked nothing short of horrible so far in spring, he also has options remaining. Kenley Jansen will resume his position at the top of this bullpen as one of the top relievers in all of baseball.
LR Joe Blanton
MR Louis Coleman
MR Yimi Garcia
MR Pedro Baez
SU Chris Hatcher
SU JP Howell
CL Kenley Jansen