Dodgers: Projected Opening Day Starting Lineup

Yesterday we broke down the projected 25-man active roster to start the season. Now I’ll break down the projected Dodgers opening day lineup and also share my thoughts on how I’d make the lineup at the end.

Spring Training is a good time to make predictions and projections for what the team is going to look like on everyday basis.

There isn’t a lot of change coming to the Dodger lineup so there’s a good idea of what we can expect to see. There are a few more questions that need to be answered before we get a concrete lineup. But, we’ll take a crack at it anyway.

[Heads Up]

One statistic you’ll notice in this article that you may not be familiar with is wOBA. Weighted On-Base Average is a more accurate statistic that analyzes a hitter’s overall offensive value. I tend to preference this statistic over your traditional triple slash line. To read up on the statistic, check out this article by Fangraphs to help give you a solid understanding of its use.

But in short, it’s a statistic that combines Slugging Percentages, Batting Average, and On-Base Percentages to give you a more accurate value of the hitter.

1. Leadoff  – Logan Forsythe, Second Base
   

Forsythe has been brought in as Chase Utley’s replacement. Utley played second base and hit leadoff for most of the season last year, but now is returning to the team in a limited role.

Forsythe is coming off of his best two seasons of his career hitting .273 with 37 Home Runs and 120 RBI over the that span. He had a solid OBP last season with .333 and a league average .336 wOBA.

What makes Forsythe an ideal leadoff hitter is his ability to put the ball in play all over the field.  Last season he had a 39.1 % Pull Rate, 32.9% Center Rate and 28% Opposite Rate. Forsythe had a 79.4% contact rate and included a 22.8% line drive rate.

We can expect Forsythe to put the ball in play and make the defense have to work regularly. These numbers are fairly similar to Utley’s of last season. This biggest difference is his power. The Dodgers are hoping his power is able to continue to progress as he hit 20 Home Runs last season.

Projected Stat Line:

.260/17 HR/60 RBI/60 Runs Scored

1. Corey Seager, Shortstop

The Rookie of the Year and the Dodgers best hitter last season. There are high expectations for Seager coming into the year.

Seager hit .308, 26 Home Runs, 72 RBI, and 105 Runs scored. Those numbers translate to a team-high .372 wOBA including an excellent .400 wOBA against right-handers.

All signs are pointing to Seager being the face of the franchise for many years to come. Frankly, there’s no reason to expect any less this upcoming season. He was a 1st round draft pick and has played to his potential all throughout his minor league career.

I’m not concerned about a sophomore slump because he had a positive pitch value on all pitches for the exception of the splitter and the cutter last season.

Seager having positive pitch values lead me to believe no matter what adjustments the pitchers make during his second full season, Seager will be ready. We may see a dip in the power numbers, but that was never Seager’s game.

Projected Stat Line:

.300/25 HR/85 RBI/100 Runs Scored

1. Justin Turner, Third Base

Perhaps the Dodgers’ top priority this offseason. Turner, 32, signed a 4-year deal to remain a Dodger hopefully for the remainder of his career.

Since joining the Dodgers in 2014, Turner has hit .303, 50 Home Runs, and 180 RBI. Not bad production for a guy that was cut by the Mets after the 2013 season.

Turner has become the team’s most consistent hitter in his years with the Dodgers. Turner was 4th on the team with a .353 wOBA and was second in WAR ranking (5.6) only behind Seager. Turner also had the most home runs in his career last season with 27 and finished tied for team-high 90 RBI.

We’ve come to expect a certain level of consistency out of J.T. and I don’t expect any different this season.

Projected Stat Line:

.275/20 Home Runs/90 RBI/70 Runs Scored

1. Adrian Gonzalez, First Base

Mr. Ole’ Reliable. Gonzalez has anchored the Dodgers’ lineup for the past 4 and a half seasons.

Despite his power numbers decreasing last year, Gonzalez still had a productive season. Gonzalez hit .285, 18 Home Runs, and 90 RBI.

Those are decent numbers for a first baseman, but the Dodgers could really use a power bat in the number 4 spot. Power isn’t necessarily the reason why Gonzalez will be hitting 4th. Dave Roberts likes hitting in the clean-up role.

A big reason why Gonzalez saw a drop off in his power numbers last season was due to his increased ground ball rate. Last year he had a ground ball rate of 46.2%, which is almost 10% higher than his consistent 38% ground ball rate. That increase directly correlates with his his decreased fly ball rate, which was down 10% from the 2015 season.

Gonzalez’s production is still there for a 34-year-old veteran. His OBP was .349, right around his .340 – .350 career average, but the slugging percentage has dropped off by 45 points. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gonzalez drop lower in the order against left-handers. Especially if the next guy plays to his capabilities.

Projected Stat Line:

.280/18 Home Runs/95 RBI/60 Runs Scored

1. Yasiel Puig, Right Field

Here’s where the lineup get’s tricky. With The outfield situation in limbo, here’s why Dave Roberts gets paid the big bucks.

Like Grandal, Puig also had an up and down season. So much that he was sent down for 19 games during the season. But that’s in the past now and from a look at the first and second half splits, it looks like the demotion helped Puig.

In 32 games during the second half of the season, Puig hit .284 with 4 Home Runs and 17 RBI. That’s a slight upgrade from the .256 average with 7 Home Runs and 28 RBI in twice as many games in the first half.

Puig had his best statistical numbers last season hitting in the 6th spot. Puig hit .412 in 10 games hitting in this spot. I’ve said before that it’s time to stop comparing Puig to the superstars of the MLB. If we temper expectations, we’d appreciate a .260 average with 25 Home Run upside type of player.

Projected Stat Line:

.270/ 18 Home Runs/ 65 RBI/ 70 Runs Scored

1. Andre Ethier, Left Field

While I could see Ethier hitting 6th in the lineup. It’s really going to depend on who’s on the mound that day.

We’re dealing with a limited sample size for Ethier as he was sidelined for most of the season with a broken leg. But Ethier is an 11-year veteran so you know what you can expect from him. Ethier doesn’t really hit for power anymore, but almost always offers professional at-bats. The Dodgers could use that at the bottom of the order.

Projected Stat Line:

.260/8 Home Runs/40 RBI/40 Runs Scored

1. Joc Pederson, Center Field

Pederson has solidified himself as one of the Dodgers better defenders on the team. Unfortunately, unlike his defense, his ability to put the ball in play hasn’t quite made the leap from the minors.

The reason why Pederson would likely hit in the 8th spot is because he strikes out a team-high 27.3%. While Pederson has been gradually improving his strikeout rate each season, he still has ways to go to get to where the Dodgers want him to be.

So hitting in front of the pitcher is a great chance to do that because hitters in the 8th spot generally see more fastballs than breaking balls.

Statistically, that should benefit Pederson as he typically owns fastballs. Pederson has all positive pitch value splits when it comes to four-seam fastballs (.78), two-seam (4.16), cutter (.09), splitter (5.62), and sinker (2.11) ball pitches. Where Pederson struggles to make contact is against breaking ball pitches (-.18) against sliders and -.82 against curveballs.

While his contact rate is alarming, it’s not the end of the world. Pederson was third on the team in OBP (.352) and wOBA (.360). Pederson made some adjustments to his stance this Spring so we hope this leads to more contact. After all, we know what type of power he has.

Projected Stat Line:

.240/27 Home Runs/ 65 RBI/ 60 Runs Scored

My Lineup:

My biggest move is moving down Adrian Gonzalez and moving Seager to the three-hole. Seager is the team’s best hitter and needs to be in the best situations to drive in runs. Gonzalez’s power struggles could come back to haunt us if he’s hitting 4th.

Next: Predicting the 25-Man Roster

Having Seager and Turner back to back gives them the most opportunity to drive in runs. Tweet us your starting lineup @DodgersWayFS!