Dodgers: Disappointments and Surprises 3 Weeks Into the Year

Kenta Maeda’s struggles:

With the main concern of the rotation being its health, Kenta Maeda looked like a solid option for the rotation. I, for one, did not see Kenta looking this bad to begin the year.

Maeda was a reliable number two starter for the team last season and was expected to serve that same role this season. As we all know, Maeda has been anything but impressive in his first four starts of the year.

In case you needed a brutal reminder, Kenta has given up 17 runs in 19 innings of work, including seven home runs. Yeah, that’s less than ideal. Accompany that with his command struggles and there are definite reasons to be nervous.

The main cause of concern for me would be Kenta’s increased fly ball rate. In his four starts this season, more than half of the balls put in play against him have been in the air, and 20% of the fly balls have turned into homers, an unsustainable rate. However, the fact that he is allowing so many fly balls is concerning and will still lead to a large dosage of home runs even if that 20% was to regress to the mean.

What could be causing this? I could say it has to do with him relying on his slider less, fastball much more, and his lack of fastball command. His fastball has gone up a tick in terms of velocity but it looks to have disturbed his placement as he has served up quite a few meatballs with it thus far.

If the Dodgers have any hopes of making it to the playoffs, let alone Fall Classic, Kenta will need to correct his course. On a brighter note, someone has stepped up in a big way for the rotation.

Brandon McCarthy’s Resurgence:

If you have been as frustrated as I have with Kenta, then I hope you have been as pleasantly surprised with Brandon McCarthy’s comeback season as I have.

Back when Brandon McCarthy got his $48 million deal, I was very happy with the signing. The happiness was short-lived however, as Brandon required Tommy John surgery 23 innings into his Dodger career. Last year, he returned after taking over a year off to rehab the injury and looked okay, but left us with small expectations for this season.

Now, four starts into his 2017 season, McCarthy has looked spectacular as he boasts a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. McCarthy has always been a solid pitcher when healthy, but the Dodgers knew the risks when they offered him the contract.

In Brandon’s most recent outing against the Diamondbacks, he gave up two earned-runs on one Paul Goldschmidt swing. Other than the one mistake, McCarthy pitched seven strong innings and helped end the Dodgers’ pitching struggles (for now) and take home a victory after losing five of the previous six.

I keep expecting McCarthy to get knocked around because that just seems like the Dodgers’ thing to do at this point, but every fifth day, he goes out and gives the team the start that they need.

Behind Kershaw and McCarthy, the Dodgers’ rotation has been a mess, and without the contributions of the 33-year-old veteran, this team would have serious issues to deal with. For the time being, McCarthy is the second best pitcher on this team, but hopefully that won’t be the case all year.

Adrian Gonzalez’s Confusing Year:

Since his arrival to LA in 2012, Gonzo has been a staple of this team and was always the “butter and eggs man”. In 2016, Gonzalez had arguably his worst season as a big leaguer; it got to the point where he was relegated to the fifth spot in the lineup (which isn’t bad) for multiple games. Anytime you can get a player “on the decline” who is coming off a “down” season that saw him hit .275, 18 home runs, and drive in 90 runs, you are in a good position.

It was almost a forgone conclusion that Adrian Gonzalez was declining and was going to struggle this year. Father Time is starting to catch up with the 34-year-old, and Father Time is undefeated.

Even with all the data telling us the obvious, no one could have guessed that his start to the season would be this puzzling. I use the word puzzling because Gonzalez hasn’t been terrible, but he has been far from great. He was able to push his struggling slugging percentage above .300 at Chase Field on Sunday and pushed his WAR to a whopping -0.2.

Gonzalez may not be the guy he used to be at the plate, but my main concern with him is durability. Since the WBC, he has been dealing with tendinitis in his forearm and it concerns me how long he will be able to withstand the pain. Coming into the season I was expecting Dave Roberts to spell Gonzo’s starts and limit him to only three to four games in any given week.

I didn’t have high expectations coming into the year for Gonzo, so it will be very hard to disappoint me further. However, I am secretly ready for a bright young talent to take over the reigns.

Cody Bellinger’s Hot Start:

If you are a frequent reader at Dodgers Way, I’m sure you have read your fair share of Cody Bellinger news from my colleagues Michael Wittman and Sully Engels. If you happened to just fall upon this article then get ready to read about my man crush for the Dodgers’ top prospect.

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Yes, we all knew that Bellinger was uber-talented and was going to force his way to Los Angeles at some point during this season. But, did anyone expect him to look like a demigod for the OKC Dodgers?

In 64 AB’s for the team, Cody has 22 hits, with five of them being homers. Couple that with a .425 OBP and the Dodgers have a good problem on their hands.

Not only has he showed his prowess at the plate, he has shown his elite skills with the glove at first base, center field, and left field, all while stealing six bases in six attempts. Are you not entertained?

Cody is forcing his way into the conversation of the Dodgers’ future and the million-dollar question is not if,  but when he gets the call. If Bellinger continues his hot start, it may be sooner rather than later.

For the time being, he will remain at AAA and that’s the right decision (Michael Wittman broke down why last week). Believe it or not, this isn’t the worst baseball team ever as some fans may make it seem, so there is no immediate need to bring up Bellinger.

Next: Top Ten Prospects

This year has brought some surprises and plenty of disappointments. I guess I should’ve known better than to get too excited for the year because baseball is dumb and it never works out how you think it will. Like I preach in each of my pieces, it’s still April so #smallsamplesizes. Instead of being upset about the season, let’s get excited because we are in the middle of the first Dodgers/Giants series of the year!