Dodgers: We Need to Be Reasonable With Julio Urias

The Dodgers are finally bringing up their 20-year-old phenom  this season. He should somewhat help stabilize a shaky rotation, but don’t expect him to be the ultimate answer to the mess.

The Dodgers‘ young pitching stud Julio Urias is slated to make his 2017 debut today in San Francisco. It was only a matter of time before he got the call up, but with Rich Hill fighting a blister, Kenta Maeda struggling, and Alex Wood giving us different messages each time he pitches, now seemed like a better time than ever.

After Kershaw, Urias is the most talented starter the Dodgers have. This is evidenced by his 3.39 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 77 innings last season as a 19 and 20-year-old. However, 2016 was not without its dull moments for him; Urias did have a rude welcome to The Show. His first two starts were on the road, first against the then-defending National League Champs New York Mets and then against the eventual 2016 World Series Champs Chicago Cubs. He lasted a combined 7.2 innings and allowed eight earned runs.

However, over the next 69.1 innings, he pitched to the tune of a 2.73 ERA, including going 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 40.2 innings after the All-Star break. This season he pitched 14 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City and had a 1.93 ERA and 15 strikeouts. However, he did have nine walks, so that’s something to be weary of.

He’s had problems with consistently keeping his pitch count low since being called up in 2016, and that was very evident during his three starts for OKC this month. In his first start, it took him 79 pitches (34 balls) to get through 3.2 innings. His next start lasted 73 pitches (27 balls) and he did not make it out of the fifth. The Dodgers are hoping he can be more efficient, because at the moment, they only have two pitchers that can go at least six innings consistently.

Urias’ last start was more promising, as he went 5.2 innings in 93 pitches. Still not efficient, but better. The Dodgers are going to obviously keep him on a pitch count, so he’ll definitely have to be smarter to be more effective.

This leads into the question of what can Julio Urias do for the Dodgers? While he may be the second most talented starter on the roster, that doesn’t necessarily make him the second best right now. He still has developing to do and this season his true effectiveness will depend on how deep he can pitch into games.

This starts with control and learning to put batters away quickly when he’s up 0-2 in counts. He can’t be the second best pitcher on the team (with the way Brandon McCarthy is dealing right now) by going just four innings a start on average.

But, I do think that will change. Last season, teams knew that he was on a strict pitch count, so I believe that a lot of the batters he faced focused more on extending at-bats to increase his pitch count and get him out of the game earlier, rather than being aggressive and trying to hit off of him. Smart strategy for sure, because he was too young to truly know how to put away major league batters or pitch to contact.

I think that will change this season. First off, his innings cap will be much more than last season, an while the front office will continue to be strict with him (rightfully so), they won’t be as strict as last season. With an expected 160-180 innings cap, he’d probably make 20-25 starts, (hopefully) average around six innings in each of them, and eventually make a few bullpen appearances.

Even though he’s still only 20, he’s soaked in so much more experience than most players before the age of 25 even get to experience. For this reason, I expect a smarter and more mature pitcher than last season. I believe that he will make 20-25 starts and throw around 150-160 innings, with some of them coming from the bullpen.

Let’s get one thing straight though: I think counting just innings pitched when monitoring a pitcher is overrated. I believe that you should be looking at number of pitches thrown in totality and not just per start. Clayton Kershaw is great at limiting his pitch counts as we all know, and in his career, he’s thrown a 94-pitch complete game. However, nowadays, a lot of starters get their pitch counts into the 90’s and close to 100 without even making, or barely making, it out of the sixth.

What’s more strenuous, nine innings of 94 pitches or six innings of 100 pitches? Exactly my point. The fact that the pitcher is laboring each inning makes it worse as well. Thus, looking at innings alone is a waste.

More from LA Dodgers News

• Dave Roberts’ quote about Padres in NLDS should motivate Dodgers
• Former Astro seemingly takes uncalled for shot at Cody Bellinger after Cubs deal
• Dodgers’ 2023 lineup without Trea Turner isn’t as impressive as it should be
• Recapping who Dodgers gained and lost in Rule 5 Draft
• Dodgers ironically sign former all-star to potentially replace Cody Bellinger

If Urias is somehow at 70-75 pitches through six innings and the Dodgers aren’t in a pinch-hitting situation, they should let him go into the seventh instead of saying “Oh he’s thrown six innings, let’s take him out”. He threw 93 pitches in a game for OKC so it’s not like he can’t go 90 pitches every now and then. Plus, going deeper into games will be a terrific learning experience for him.

Ultimately, I believe Urias will add some stability to the rotation, and slot in nicely in the middle-of-the-rotation. However, don’t expect a Fernando Valenzuela-esque run. He’s not the answer to the rotation problems, but hopefully one of them. He’s a future ace, just not yet.

In his predicted 150-160 innings, I think an ERA around 3.00-3.15 and a K/9 between 9-9.5 is realistic and reasonable. As his innings start to pile up, he’ll be moved to the bullpen to keep him fresh (they did it last season).

Next: Puig Giving Off a Nostalgic Vibe

For the time being however, he’ll give the Dodgers a solid trio with Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy. It’s crazy to think, for how talented and accomplished he is, he still won’t be able to legally drink in the U.S. for another three to four months .