Dodgers: Projecting the Possible Playoff Starting Rotation

Clayton Kershaw

Clearly a no brainer here for Dave Roberts, but the Dodgers are privileged to roll out the game’s best starting pitcher in any series to start game one. Should the Dodgers find themselves in the Wild Card play-in game, Kershaw will get the ball, and the Dodgers will be favorites to advance.

The question about Kershaw has never been on his regular season dominance, but rather his postseason fall off. They say legends are defined when they are in the most intense situations. And perhaps for Kershaw, this has been the only blemish on his young, successful career.

Kershaw owns a career 4.55 ERA with a 4-7 record in 14 postseason starts. Eye-opening numbers for a pitcher who has a career 2.36 ERA during the regular season. But there’s reason for optimism for Kershaw this upcoming postseason.

Last postseason, Kershaw had an improved postseason. With a 2-1 record and a 4.42 ERA in 21 1/3 innings, it’s hard to see that as improved for Kershaw. But he showed more poise than in past postseasons and was only a few outs away from having dominant stat lines. Kershaw even recorded his first career save on one day rest to secure the NLDS for Dave Roberts. Kershaw averaged six innings per start and had a 1.2K/9 rate against two powerhouse offenses.

Kershaw’s legacy is not going to fall on the accolades he’s accumulated young ten-year career. He has an MVP, 3 Cy Youngs, 4 ERA titles, and will continue to accumulate more. What he needs is a World Series ring, and in my opinion, he’s never had a more well-rounded, talented team to do it until this season.

I attest Kershaw’s struggles in the postseason to him simply trying too hard. He’s the Dodgers biggest competitor, and while that’s a great quality to have, it can also be your greatest enemy. This postseason could be the postseason where the team behind Kershaw allows him to settle in and be the dominant pitcher that he is without needing to be perfect.

Alex Wood

Alex Wood has been perhaps the biggest surprise of the Dodgers season. With a roster spot in question coming into spring training, Alex Wood really put the extra work in the offseason to make sure he had a place on the Dodgers big leagues club.

Wood made the team as the long relief man out of the bullpen, but due to injuries, he found his way into the rotation. Well, injuries or not, Alex Wood proved he was more than able to hold his own in the rotation and forced Dave Roberts’ hand and now has solidified his place in the starting rotation.

This season in 8 starts Alex Wood has a 6-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and is holding opposing hitters to a .210 batting average in 48 innings pitched. At only 26-years old, Wood has always been seen as a young left-handed with plenty of upside. It’s looking like this 2017 season is the year Alex Wood puts it all together.

Alex Wood has some experience pitching in the postseason, mostly in relief, but has been effective in his seven innings pitched. Wood pitched two scoreless innings in relief for the Dodgers in the NLCS last season.

Wood’s recent emergence as the Dodgers second starter lines him up for a more prominent role this postseason. I do think it’s worth watching that if indeed Wood makes the postseason rotation, this would be the first time in four appearances that he pitches in the postseason as a starter.

Brandon McCarthy

Like Alex Wood, Brandon McCarthy’s roster spot was also in question to begin spring training. But not because of production or lack of a role, but rather health. McCarthy signed a four-year contract with the Dodgers back during winter meetings of the 2014 offseason.

Up until this season, McCarthy had started only 13 games for the Dodgers in his first two seasons with the boys in blue. McCarthy combined for a 5-3 record with a 5.41 ERA. He wasn’t productive and was shaping out to be a bust.

Well, fast forward to 2017 and McCarthy looks like he has reinvented himself. McCarthy is off to a solid 5-3 record with a 3.28 ERA in just under 58 innings pitched this season with the Dodgers. McCarthy has spent some time on the DL this season, but aside from that short stint with discomfort in his non-throwing shoulder, he has looked healthy thus far.

McCarthy adds a good veteran presence to a young Dodger rotation. In his 12 MLB season, McCarthy has started over 176 games and has seen both sides of the spectrum from throwing shutouts to getting hit around. Although McCarthy does not have any postseason experience, the fact that he’s right-handed helps break up the rotation and gives opposing teams a different arm slot to look at.

Should McCarthy be able to stay healthy, he will slot in nicely as the Dodgers 3rd starter in a packed rotation.

Julio Urias

This may spark some controversy here, but bare with me. While this fourth spot in the postseason rotation is very much dependent on how the series is going, I see Urias getting the nod over the 37-year old left-hander Rich Hill. This being because of Rich Hill’s health.

Obviously, you can’t predict whether players will get injured or will remain injured within the next four months, but for Hill, there’s been a sizeable track record to be pessimistic. You’ll read more about why Rich Hill didn’t make the rotation on the next slide. This is about Urias.

Urias has had his fair share of struggles this season, especially when it comes to throwing strikes. This season Urias had an unacceptable 5.40 walks per 9 innings ratio before being sent down to Triple-A to work on his mechanics.

Since Urias’ demotion, he’s thrown 11 2/3 innings while allowing a total of four earned runs and walking five. Those aren’t lights out numbers, but they are improved numbers from his last starts in the big leagues.

So why does he deserve the final spot? 

Last season Urias appeared in two games for the Dodgers, once in relief and once as a starter. The numbers aren’t all that eye-opening, but the poise Urias showed is enough for Dave Roberts to take a flyer on him at least in the NLDS.

Urias has the second most talented left-hand in the Dodgers organization. His ability to dominate a game is real, I’ll be it there are still flaws that need to be polished, but if the Dodgers want to win a World Series, they need to rely on their most talented arms.

Given that Urias is down in the minor leagues working on those flaws, this gives Urias and the Dodgers the ability to preserve his innings for the late October push.

Naturally, this may seem like a pick that is going against the grain. Choosing a 19-year old over a 37-year old doesn’t seem practical, but based on Hill’s health, his role may switch come late in the season.

Rich Hill

Rich Hill is the biggest head scratcher here. I know what you’re saying: “Why would the Dodgers pay 48 million for a bullpen piece in the postseason?”  Well, the truth is I don’t know why the Dodger gave a 37-year old with injuries concerns a three-year deal. It surely hasn’t paid off so far. But that’s neither here nor there; I’m creating this rotation based on the players on the roster.

The fact of the matter is Rich Hill brings more flexibility to the postseason rotation than Julio Urias does. I touched on his age and his injury concerns, so what better way to get value on your investment than to preserve his arm (more like the finger) by using him out of the bullpen.

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October baseball is unlike baseball during the regular season. Every out matters and every situational pitching is highlighted more than ever. By utilizing Hill out of the bullpen, you get a veteran left-hander that can get both lefties and righties out in pressured situations and can also give you multiple innings. Hill to the bullpen provides experienced protection IF Urias struggles and Hill could possibly widen the bridge to Pedro Baez and possibly Kenley Jansen.

Hill without question has the potential to be in the starting rotation. That’s why the Dodgers resigned him. But for the time being, he still has yet to prove he’s healthy, as he has yet to pitch six innings this season. If Hill can show that he’s fully healthy and regain his form that he showed last season then without question, he’ll make the rotation come October. But as of today, June 7th, that’s not the case. I know Urias has yet to show he can pitch with confidence this season, but as of today, this gives the Dodgers the best combination.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu’s inconsistency leave a lot of question marks for Dave Roberts to trust come playoff time. I wonder whether Ryu will make the postseason roster depending on whether he can settle into a more permanent role as the season progresses.

Next: Dodgers June Offensive Struggles

Kenta Maeda – Maeda fell off as the season went on last year. He struggled in his starts in the postseason and has struggled early on this season. Maeda transitioning into a bullpen role may not be the best move for him in the future, but it certainly is the right move for now. I’m worried the league may be catching up to Maeda’s stuff as more film has been discovered on Kenta.