Dodgers: Which Surprise Players Are Legit

Pedro Baez

When Dodger fans see Pedro Baez warming up in the bullpen of a tight game, there is a usually a long and deep sigh that follows. While Kenley Jansen and the rest of the bullpen has been utterly amazing the past few years, Baez has been….well…let’s say not amazing. And it’s true, in the past Baez has had a tendency to give up huge leads via the long ball late in games. But he has seemed to change that storyline in 2017.

From 2015-2016, Baez had an era of 3.20, averaging about 62 innings per season. his strikeout to walk ratio in 2015 was 5.45:1 and it was 3.77:1 in 2016. Surprisingly, Baez has a lower strikeout to walk ration in 2017 (2.07:1), yet his ERA sits at 1.47 as of Wednesday afternoon. It’s not often that a pitcher walks more batters yet still manages a lower ERA, but Baez has managed to do just that. His ground balls to fly ball rate is down from .82 to .70 and that generally does not translate to success. Again, Baez has managed to do so. So, will his success last in 2017?

In my very unprofessional opinion, no. There’s simply no way. With those sort of lopsided stats along with Baez’s hot zones, he’s going to lose it. Baez has basically been living in the top of the strike zone this season, and pitchers who live up in the zone better blow it by the hitter every time. Baez is sitting at an average fastball velocity of 97, which is why he’s had this sort of success. But the numbers don’t seem to indicate his dominance can last. Unfortunately, eventually, these hitters will catch on and start to launch his fastballs into orbit.

Conclusion: Bust.