Dodgers: Which Surprise Players Are Legit or Not Legit

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Apr 5, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy during batting practice before a MLB baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

The Los Angeles Dodgers have had great success in the 2017 season, due in great part to tremendous performances from surprise players. Several players were not expected to contribute much this season but now find themselves in a vital position on the team. So which of these guys will last and which ones are just on a hot streak? This is boom or bust Dodgers edition.

At the beginning of Spring Training, I don’t think anyone in the Dodgers organization would have expected Chris Taylor to play a big role in the 2017 season. They might not have expected him to make the big league roster at all, let alone contribute on a daily basis. But Taylor has done that, and he has been a pleasant(and cheap) surprise for the club.

Cody Bellinger is another guy that no one really expected to thrive this early. The entire league knows about him and his potential, but his debut wasn’t supposed to come until the September roster expansion. But injuries happen, and a multitude of injuries to position players paved the way for the very versatile Bellinger. Since then, he has been nothing short of a star.

But those are not the only two pleasant surprises this season. Dodger veterans are also stepping it up in a big way, specifically on the pitching staff. When the Dodgers signed Brandon McCarthy, they knew they were taking a risk. A calculated risk, but a risk nonetheless. Injuries set back McCarthy for the first two seasons, but he has been great this year. Pedro Baez has been historically unreliable late in close games, but he’s out to prove himself to the Dodger faithful in 2017.

So can all of these guys last? Will these streaks run the team up to a World Series title? And if not, who is the most likely to be a bust? Let’s break it down by the numbers and analyze the boom or busts of the surprise contributors.

Pedro Baez

When Dodger fans see Pedro Baez warming up in the bullpen of a tight game, there is a usually a long and deep sigh that follows. While Kenley Jansen and the rest of the bullpen has been utterly amazing the past few years, Baez has been….well…let’s say not amazing. And it’s true, in the past Baez has had a tendency to give up huge leads via the long ball late in games. But he has seemed to change that storyline in 2017.

From 2015-2016, Baez had an era of 3.20, averaging about 62 innings per season. his strikeout to walk ratio in 2015 was 5.45:1 and it was 3.77:1 in 2016. Surprisingly, Baez has a lower strikeout to walk ration in 2017 (2.07:1), yet his ERA sits at 1.47 as of Wednesday afternoon. It’s not often that a pitcher walks more batters yet still manages a lower ERA, but Baez has managed to do just that. His ground balls to fly ball rate is down from .82 to .70 and that generally does not translate to success. Again, Baez has managed to do so. So, will his success last in 2017?

In my very unprofessional opinion, no. There’s simply no way. With those sort of lopsided stats along with Baez’s hot zones, he’s going to lose it. Baez has basically been living in the top of the strike zone this season, and pitchers who live up in the zone better blow it by the hitter every time. Baez is sitting at an average fastball velocity of 97, which is why he’s had this sort of success. But the numbers don’t seem to indicate his dominance can last. Unfortunately, eventually, these hitters will catch on and start to launch his fastballs into orbit.

Conclusion: Bust.

Cody Bellinger

All aboard the Bellinger hype train. Cody Bellinger has done nothing but impress since his arrival in April. He’s hit a jaw-dropping 22 home runs in just 5o+ games, averaging a dinger every nine at bats. That’s not a typo, you don’t need reading glasses (maybe you do, I don’t know you) and your computer isn’t bugging out. A home run every NINE at bats!

If he manages to get even 80 more games in this year at that pace, that’s ANOTHER 35 home runs. Imagine a rookie hitting 40+ home runs and driving in 120+ RBI. Those are video games numbers. Actually those are video game numbers with cheat codes on. It’s not even fair to opposing pitchers at this point. Usually when you have a power hitting left handed hitter with a long swing, he isn’t going to have great success against left handed pitching. And I really think that is the difference maker for Bellinger, who is hitting .267 with 5 long balls against lefties.

Eventually, pitchers will figure out how to handle the young first baseman. Everyone adjusts, and he will need to as well. But he has met every challenge this year, learning to shorten his swing on those pitchers that felt he couldn’t handle the inside heat. His average exit velocity on balls in play is almost 93 mph, good for 18th highest of all qualified players. To give you a comparison, he sits just barely below Paul Goldschmidt on the list.

Conclusion: Legit Boom. SO much Boom.

Brandon McCarthy

When the Dodgers gave Brandon McCarthy a four year contract worth $48 million, you can be sure they expected more than 63 innings of work across the first two years. But that’s exactly what he gave them. A flurry of injuries, starting with a season ending Tommy John surgery in 2015, limited McCarthy to just 13 starts over his first two seasons with the Dodgers.

Control issues and almost a look of fear on the mound made him ineffective even when he was healthy enough to pitch, with a combined era of 5.29 in 2015 and 2016. McCarthy walked 30 batters in those 63 innings of work, averaging a mere 4.5 innings pitched per start.

Despite all of that, McCarthy is ready to contribute this year. And thus far, he has managed to turn it all around. He’s going deeper into games, averaging closer to six innings per start, with much better control. He has allowed only 17 walks, and has matched his innings pitched from the previous two seasons at 63. His 3.14 earned run average is the lowest of his career thus far, and he has shown no signs of a dramatic slow down. He looks good, there’s no denying that. McCarthy might not be an elite starter, but he makes for a terrific back-end rotation starter, especially for a team with under performing pitching. So it seems like McCarthy has settled into his role as a back end starter and this seems like a good role for him.

Conclusion: Legit… Barring injuries

Chris Taylor

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If there’s one guy on this Dodger roster you’re cheering for, it’s probably Chris Taylor. The guy is making it happen this year, all while playing in unfamiliar territory. Through the 2014 and 2015 season with Seattle, Taylor managed to squeak out a .239 batting average and didn’t hit any home runs.

But this year is similar to Justin Turner‘s first year as a Dodger. Taylor has popped nine home runs already and is hitting .302 on the season. This is coming from a guy that no one expected to make it onto the opening day roster despite a strong spring performance.

Now Taylor has a starting spot as he has found a home in the outfielder to contribute on a daily basis. And yes, while he sometimes looks like a newborn deer on ice skates tracking fly balls, he’s been effective. He might not make the highlight reel defensive plays, but Chris Taylor is absolutely demolishing opposing pitchers.

Remember that narrative that was SO last year? That the Dodgers couldn’t hit left-handed pitchers to save their lives? No, me neither because that has changed. Their average against lefties is just a touch under their team average against righties, and Chris Taylor is certainly a big part of that turnaround, hitting .361 against southpaw pitching. I’d say Los Angeles is just what he needed to get his bat going. Maybe there’s something in the water out west.

Next: JD Martinez to the Dodgers?

Conclusion: Legit

There’s plenty of players who could be mentioned in articles like this. So keep an eye out for a follow-up article that could feature the likes of Alex Wood, Kenley Jansen, and even Justin Turner.

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