Dodgers: The Battle for the NL West

The Dodgers will square off against one the better National League teams this weekend, in what will ultimately be a battle for first place in the National League. The Rockies come into town just a game and a half behind Los Angeles for first place after faltering against Arizona this week.

The Dodgers and Rockies enter into Friday’s match up with very different moods. The Dodgers are coming off of a four-game sweep of the Mets, in which they dramatically outscored their opponents 36 to 11 and swatted a record-setting number of home runs. The Dodgers come into this series sitting a game and a half above both Arizona and Colorado, and an overall record of 15-5 for the month of June, including 13-1 their last 14 games.

The Rockies, on the other hand, will come into Dodger Stadium with their heads hung low. Colorado won the opening game of the series against Arizona but went on to get crushed over the next two games. The Diamondbacks outscored Colorado 29-12 at home, leaving the Rockies with a -17 run differential. That compared to the Dodgers’ +25 run differential should be a sign of how the series might shape up between now and Sunday.

Overall for the season, the Rockies have the edge over the Dodgers in head-to-head matchups, taking 5 of 9. But strangely enough, the Dodgers have outscored them in head to head games, 43 to 39. Let’s break down this big weekend series that could help separate the Dodgers as the cream of the crop of the NL.

Game Two – Saturday 7:10 PM (Clayton Kershaw vs. Tyler Chatwood)

Pitching Match-up:  Clayton Kershaw will take the hill in the second game of the series, coming off of a game in which he gave up an unprecedented 4 home runs in 6.1 innings of work. Luckily for him, the offense was able to carry the team that whole night, but expect to see Kershaw come out attacking hitters Saturday night. The whole league knows how much of a competitor he is, and giving up that many home runs in one outing is sure to fuel his fiery demeanor on the hill. On the year, number 22 has pitched to a 2.61 ERA and has gone 1-1 in two outings versus Colorado this season. Tyler Chatwood will throw for the Rockies, who owns a sub-par 4.08 era over 2017. Chatwood lost in his only outing against the Dodgers this year, giving up 5 earned runs over 4 1/3 innings of work.

Dodgers’ Difference Maker: Joc Pederson had an incredibly slow start to his season, but has come around since returning from his concussion. Since his return on June 13th, Pederson is hitting .313 with 3 very long home runs. Pederson owns a career .500/.636/.750 against Chatwood in 8 at-bats. Saturday could be a big game for Pederson to continue his hot streak.

Rockies’ Difference Maker: Nolan Arenado has been having another monster year in 2017. He is currently batting .446 against left-handed pitching, so Kershaw better be on his A-game. Arenado is hitting a combined .301 with 15 home runs for Colorado, and has not been kind to Kershaw over his career. Lifetime, Arenado owns a .310/.341/.524 slash line with two home runs against Kershaw.

Keys to the Game:  If Kershaw is lights out, not much really needs to be said. Kershaw is undefeated when he receives four runs or more, and at their current pace Los Angeles might get that in the first inning. Pouncing on Chatwood early will pave the way for a strong performance for the 3-time Cy Young Award winner.

Game Three – Sunday 1:10 PM (Brandon McCarthy vs. German Marquez)

Pitching Match-up:  Brandon McCarthy is another pitcher performing well in Los Angeles, and he will take the mound for the final game of the series on Sunday afternoon. McCarthy has not faced Colorado this year but owns a superb 2.87 ERA in 2017 and his control has been much better this year. German Marquez, in his first full major league season, will go for Colorado. Marquez owns a 3.92 era on the year and has had some control issues. Marquez has walked 27 batters in 80 innings of work in 2017.

Dodgers’ Difference Maker: Cody Bellinger has absolutely torn apart opposing pitching in 2017. The new kid on the block has also managed to blast 22 home runs across 54 games, setting all sorts of rookie records along the way. Bellinger also owns a +.270 average against right-handed pitching and has hit 17 of his 22 home runs off of them. The kid is also hitting over .300 in day games this year, with 6 home runs. We may be in store for a Cody Bomb on Sunday.

Rockies’ Difference Maker: Ian Desmond had an unfortunate start to the year after getting hurt in Spring Training, but has produced in his first year for the Rockies. Desmond is hitting .277 with five home runs in 48 games.  Desmond also has two home runs at Dodgers stadium since 2014, in just 26 at bats.

Keys to the Game:  This may be the closest game of the series if Marquez is able to hold down the potent Dodger offense. McCarthy will need to maintain his control and Marquez will have to work around Cody Bellinger.  Other than that, this game will more than likely come down to a battle of the bullpens to decide who walks away from the series in first place.

Next: Kershaw's Home Run Rate

The Dodgers clearly look to have the upper hand in this series. Playing like the best team in baseball and also having their top three starters pitch in a big series should give them a series victory. Although it’s only June and every game counts the same, a series victory or even series sweep could lead to an NL West take over for the Dodgers.