Dodgers: Kershaw’s Home Run Issue

In his last start on Monday night against the Mets, Clayton Kershaw gave up a career-high four home runs. While it’s easy to chalk it up as one bad start, the game further cemented the fact that Kershaw is allowing an unusual amount of home runs this season. The question is what has changed?

While Clayton has still been pitching at an elite level, he is definitely getting tagged for more home runs.  Hitters seem to be more aggressive early in the count against Kershaw this season.  This season he set a new career high in home runs. Out of the 17 home runs, he’s allowed this season, seven have come on either the first pitch of the at bat or on a 1-0 count.  Hitters are attacking early in the count knowing if they end up with two strikes they might as well sit down as opposing batters only hit .156 with two strikes on them.

The main pitch Kershaw is getting victimized on is his fastball. Ten of the seventeen home runs have come against his fastball. Batters are also hitting for the highest average against the fastball with a .231 average (still pretty damn good). Kershaw’s average fastball velocity is exactly the same (93 MPH) as last year when he only allowed eight home runs, so it’s not like his velocity has gone down and suddenly made, him easier to hit.

Not only are hitters being more aggressive early in the count against Kershaw but they have also made him appear more vulnerable than usual when Kershaw is behind in the count.  Kershaw has allowed all of his 17 homers this season when behind in the count. Yep, all 17 of them.  The issue hasn’t been falling behind in the count. However, the issue has been pitch location.  As you can see on the heat map here, the spots where Kershaw is getting hit the most (to no surprise) are balls in the middle of the plate. There is not a single blip on any corner spots outside of the zone.

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When you look at the fact, ten home runs have come on Kershaw’s fastball, and most of those are being hit over the middle of the plate. The home run problem is being caused by poor fastball placement. With hitter’s being aggressive early, they are taking advantage of poorly placed fastballs primarily early in the count. With baseball’s newfound obsession with launch angle and fly balls, hitters are trying to launch fly balls more, which means Kershaw has picked the worst possible time to leave fastballs in poor locations of the strike zone.

Despite Kershaw having a home run issue it’s important to not take that as a knock that he’s in decline. While his home runs allowed are up all the other stats that we tend to judge pitchers on are more in line with his career averages. Kershaw is still striking out more than a hitter per inning and his WHIP is still under one. His walk, strikeout, and hits allowed per nine innings are all identical to his other stellar seasons, not to mention he’s still tied for the league lead in wins with a 10-2 record.

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Kershaw is getting burned early in the count, when he’s behind in the count, and when he leaves fastballs in a poor location. With better fastball location in those situations, Kershaw should see a decrease of home runs he gives up. Given his hall of fame worthy career thus far, I am going to side that Clayton Kershaw will figure it out. After all, he’s only the best pitcher in the world with a relentless work ethic. We’ll see if he’s able to keep the ball in the park in his next start against the Rockies who took him deep four times earlier this season.