Dodgers: Ranking the Most Expendable Top Prospects
We’re just two games away from flipping the calendar over to July, and the Dodgers are sitting pretty atop the NL West, with the best division in the National League (52-28). As the season progresses to July more and more rumors start to swirl about potential trades that could arise come the July 31st deadline.
Despite the best record in the NL, the Dodgers may still be looking to make a move to bolster their roster in preparation for a deep postseason run. That being said, there will be a demand for the great young talent the Dodgers have in the majors and minor leagues.
In preparation of all these rumors, I thought it would be a good idea to rank some of the Dodgers best potential prospects that Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi could look to trade if they decide to make a big splash before the trade deadline. Before we do that, it’s important to understand the value of prospects.
Cutting ties with prospects is not easy. Trading a prospect means that the organization is moving on from a player’s potential impact for the franchise in the coming years for someone that may impact the club this season. That’s something that Friedman and Zaidi have been reluctant to do since they moved out to Los Angeles, and thankfully so.
But although the Dodgers don’t have any obvious need on their major league roster, the front office could still look to make a play for a player that will help them achieve their end goal of bringing a World Series back to LA. In doing that, the Dodgers would need to give up some prospects and being that the Dodgers have potentially the best farm system in the league, teams are going to ask for key players.
That shouldn’t deter Friedman and Zaidi from making a deal, but it also should give them comfort knowing that if they move one of their highly touted prospects they have some up-and-coming prospects to replace them.
I’ll give a list of prospects or young talent on the Dodgers major league roster that have high value around the league and players that the GM could move in the right deal. The point of this list is to give you the best Dodger prospects who are not considered “untouchable.”
5. Yusniel Diaz, Outfielder
Since joining the Dodgers organization after the 2015 International signing period, the Cuban defector came in with expectations to be a potential five-tool player. At only 20-years-old, Diaz has had a rough start, battling injuries all throughout his first two seasons with the Dodgers and never quite living up to the Dodgers’ expectations.
This season in Advanced A, Diaz is hitting .287/.354/.440 with seven home runs and eight stolen bases in 306 plate appearances. Diaz is profiled as a good athlete, solid defender who has a feel for making contact at the plate and using his athleticism to stretch singles into doubles.
The hopes of him developing into a power hitter were always far-fetched with his 6’1″ 195 lb. Stature, but he was at the minimum regarded as a consistent outfielder who could play centerfield. Diaz is rated as the Dodgers fifth best prospect and third best position player according to MLB Pipeline, so scouts around the league should surely come checking in on his asking price.
Diaz without a doubt still has a chance to develop into an everyday outfielder in the big leagues, but given his young age and inability to stay healthy for a full season, I can see the Dodgers willing to include him in a deal that could help them win over the next two seasons.
4. Gavin Lux, Shortstop
The 20th overall pick for the Dodgers in last year’s 2016 MLB Draft, Gavin Lux also finds himself on this list. Like Diaz, Lux is also very young (19) and not projected to make an impact with the major league club until 2019 at the earliest, and that’s why these two players find themselves on the list.
Lux was drafted out of Indian Trail High School but has not produced to the first round expectations. Lux is hitting a career .255/.304/.287 with a pair of homers and a nearly double strikeout to walk ratio between rookie league and Single-A.
Lux profiles as a “mature” hitter and has good enough bat speed to drive the ball into the gaps. He’s shown a decent burst of speed in his first full season at Single-A with ten stolen bases, but his .211 batting average and .304 OBP leave a lot to be desired.
Being drafted out of High School, the Dodgers knew Lux was going to be a developmental player. It would be difficult to see the organization giving up on him just one season into his professional career, but it’s no secret the Dodgers already have their shortstop of the future.
Both Lux and Diaz are both young prospects that are highly regarding throughout the MLB and could bring good value in return should the Dodgers part ways with them. Lux is rated as the Dodgers sixth best prospect in their organization coming into the 2017 season. Although these young, talented players may draw some interest from other teams, I can see the Dodgers more inclined to part ways with some MLB ready talent to hold out to see what these two players could develop into.
I personally do not think either of these players offer a high enough ceiling to warrant stopping a trade, so if the deal is right, why not pull the trigger.
3. Yadier Alvarez, Starting Pitcher
Alvarez finds himself on the list because he’ll more than likely be the name that comes up in any trade conversation that involves a key player. Alvarez is ranked as the Dodgers number 1 overall prospect in their farm system according to MLB Pipeline.
The reason why Alvarez finds himself at third and not first is that I doubt the Dodgers would part ways with the young right-hander. Although Many consider him to be the best Dodger pitcher in the farm system, I believe Walker Buehler should be more untouchable than Alvarez.
But what Alvarez brings is huge potential. With a fastball that sits at 94-97 MPH and could touch triple digits the superstar potential is there. Alvarez also works his secondary pitches well to help complement his overpowering fastballs which lead to high strikeout totals.
In his first full season at Advanced-A with the Dodgers, Alvarez is averaging a little over a strikeout per inning (54:52) through nine starts. His ERA (5.05) and record (2-4) show some red flags, but with the Dodgers’ history of developing pitchers in their farm system, they would be crazy to cut bait with him this young into his career. To show how serious the Dodgers were about Alvarez, they gave him a $16m bonus when signing him in the 2015 International market.
Alvarez is going to be in high demand if the Dodgers look to make a big splash. He has the potential to be the next Stephen Strasburg and has plenty of time to develop into the pitcher the Dodgers think he can be. However, like the Dodgers recently found out with Julio Urias’ injury, developing and protecting pitchers are always a crap shoot.
2. Willie Calhoun, Second Base
The next two players are in this order simply because of a need for the Dodgers MLB roster and MiLB roster. Willie Calhoun finds himself at the number two slot because I think the Dodgers would be less reluctant to trade him than number one.
By this time you know the name, Willie Calhoun. He’s regarded as the left-handed Jose Altuve and brings a lot of promise for the Dodgers should make the major league club next season. Calhoun could assume an everyday role with the Dodgers next season if the club elects to not pick up Logan Forsythe’s contract after this season, which is why I don’t see them being so eager to move Calhoun at the deadline.
That being said, I don’t think Calhoun in “untouchable.” In fact, we even traded him in a hypothetical trade for J.D. Martinez. Again, that’s the point of this list. But if the Dodgers are in search of making a big splash by acquiring a big arm like Chris Archer or Yu Darvish or even a big bat like J.D. Martinez, the opposite side is going to ask for an MLB-ready prospect like Calhoun or a high upside arm like Alvarez.
Calhoun has come a long way since the 2015 MLB Draft when the Dodgers drafted him in the 4th round. He now leads the league in home runs through his first three seasons with the Dodgers. Don’t expect Calhoun to move unless the Dodgers are thinking BIG trade.
1. Alex Verdugo, Outfield
More from Dodgers Way
- Kevin Kiermaier being ‘top target’ to replace Cody Bellinger is bad sign for Dodgers
- Are the Dodgers really prepared to hand Shohei Ohtani a blank check?
- Dodgers fans shouldn’t dismiss interest in Dansby Swanson for this reason
- Giants laughably sign pitcher that Dodgers absolutely own
- Dave Roberts’ quote about Padres in NLDS should motivate Dodgers
Verdugo is already knocking on the door to make an impact with the Dodgers on the big league level. He’s having a career year in Triple-A hitting .344/.411/.462 with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28).
Already regarded as the best Dodgers position prospect in the farm system, Verdugo is ready. Just like Bellinger’s time in the minors, Verdugo has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. He owns a career .310/.363/.443 slash rate in the minors and has proven to be efficient at every outfield spot.
The issue is not if Verdugo can play, it’s when he makes the Dodgers roster. The way things are going this season, it would be difficult for the Dodgers to call him up and find him every day playing time with all the depth the club has, which is why I can see the Dodgers open to trading him.
All of these players listed are highly regarded around the league and Friedman could package together more than enough to get anyone available. It’s not a matter of IF the Dodgers can make a trade, it’s IF the Dodgers WANT to make a trade.
I can very well see the club calling up Verdugo come September and getting him big league experience. But at the same time, if the club goes out and makes a splash like some Dodger fans are clamoring for, don’t be surprised if Verdugo is the centerpiece of the deal.
On that note, I ask you – would you be willing to include any of these prospects in a trade? We know Friedman and Zaidi haven’t been willing to make these trades. And that philosophy has led to Dodgers success this season because if they had made a trade for the Cole Hamels back in 2015 or Chris Sale back in 2016, the Dodgers wouldn’t have Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, or Julio Urias on their roster.
Julio Urias brings me to my final thought to throw out there. The organization protected Urias’ arm from the day he was signed up until the day he went through surgery. Yet, Urias has just pitched an out over 100 innings and is now sidelined for 12-14 months. I’m not saying by any means is Urias’ career over, he’s not even 21 for crying out loud. I’m just pointing out how prospects, at the end of the day, can be a crapshoot no matter how much you protect them. So maybe sometimes it is better to go after it for one season. If not for the glory of that year, but because the future of these young players is so uncertain.
Next: Can Turner Win the Batting Title?
Honorable mentions: Trevor Oaks, Brock Stewart, Mitchell White, DJ Peters, Rob Segedin