Dodgers: Biggest Storylines to Look at in the Second-Half

Can Corey Seager go Supernova?

He isn’t showing signs of a sophomore slump, but you get the sense that he has even more to offer. That isn’t to say he has been disappointing because he’s still hit .298/.395/.502 with 13 home runs and 22 doubles, elite numbers, and finished the first half on fire.

His stats should have him starting in the All-Star Game, but that’s an argument for another time. Last year he hit .308 with 26 home runs, 40 doubles, and finished third in MVP voting. This year his average and power are a bit down, but he is still on track for 23 home runs and 39 doubles.

He is striking out more than last season but is also walking a lot more (an excellent 13.5 BB%). The reason he strikes out at such a high rate is not that he’s a free swinger, but an aggressive strike swinger, especially on first-pitch strikes.

However, he is an all-around better hitter this season than last. He is making much better contact (if that’s possible), has become more of a spray hitter by using all parts of the field, hitting it a lot more in the air and fewer times on the ground, and finally hitting off left-handed pitchers (.319 average).

His 2016 season would be a career year for most players, but considering he’s only 23 with tremendous potential, he has much more room for growth, especially in the batting average department.

So, you’d expect him to continue to take steps forward instead of stay stagnant or go in reverse. Last year he hit .297 in the first-half but .321 post the All-Star Break. This season he hit .298 and you feel he’s on the brink of going on a white-hot tear. He’s been hot recently, but he can still take it to another level.

Seager has the potential to be one of the best pure hitters in baseball (one can argue he already is) and challenge for a batting title in the future, so a .308 average is just the start. So considering he feels his swing is better this season than last, is making much better contact in 2017, is hitting lefties, and the weather in LA is heating up (meaning ball will carry more), he has the chance to go off in the second-half.

Can Cody Bellinger continue to break records?

Mark McGwire set the rookie record for home runs in a season as a member of the Oakland A’s back in 1987 with 49. Mike Piazza set the Dodger rookie record in 1993 with 35 long balls, and Shawn Green set the franchise record with 49 back in 2001.

So far, in 70 games and 257 at-bats, Bellinger has already hit 25 home runs. He is the fastest hitter to reach 21 home runs and six multi-home runs games and is looking to break some more impressive records.

Barring anything catastrophic, Bellinger will soon surpass Mike Piazza for the most home runs as a Dodger rookie. The more intriguing storyline is whether he can break both McGwire’s and Green’s records. These will be much tougher to touch.

He is hitting a home run at a ridiculous rate of once every 10.3 at-bats. He has 257 official at-bats in 70 games, which comes out to 3.67 ABs per game. The Dodgers have 70 games remaining, so if we were to duplicate Bellinger’s numbers, he would just break both records and hit the 50 home run plateau as a rookie.

But that is if he was to play every single game from here on out, which is highly unlikely. It would be much more attainable if he did not spend the first three weeks in Triple-A.

And when considering he is in a slump at the moment, the task looks even tougher. However, the last time he was in a slump in his young career was his first ever one, and he responded with ten home runs in ten games and 13 for the month of June.

He has that kind of special ability, and you can expect him to adjust to the adjustments pitchers have made to him and improve as a hitter as the season goes on. Hitting Coach Turner Ward has worked wonders with many Dodgers this season, so don’t be surprised if he can do it with one of LA’s most talented hitters.

Clayton Kershaw’s journey for a fourth Cy Young

Clayton Kershaw is already the most decorated active pitcher, and he will be looking to add more silverware this season. He could easily have five CY Youngs right now if not for a bad back in 2016 and being robbed because the voters prioritized a feel-good story in 2012.

He entered 2017 as most people’s National League favorite, but after starting the season off slow (by his standards) he faces an uphill battle because Max Scherzer has been lights out in 2017.

It just goes to show you how special Kershaw is when a 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 159 strikeouts in a league-leading 132.1 innings is considered a “down season.” Almost any other season these numbers would make Kershaw the favorite to win the Cy Young. But this isn’t any of those.

Scherzer has pitched 128.2 innings, has a 2.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 173 strikeouts. He also has a better FIP, ERA+, and home run rate than the Dodger ace. So it is fair to say that Scherzer has had the better season up until now.

However, one thing to consider is that Scherzer is pitching out of his mind and Clayton Kershaw has just started to find his groove over his past four starts. The Dodgers’ ace has a 0.62 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 44 punchouts in these 29 innings, which also includes his first complete game of the season. And for the season, Scherzer’s walk total of 56 pales in comparison to Kershaw’s 22. Kershaw is also allowing a lower opponents’ batting average against.

Also keep in mind that from over the past three seasons (best seasons to use for comparison because of Scherzer’s late rise) Kershaw has a 1.50 ERA after the All-Star Break while Mad Max has a 3.15 ERA, which is still good but not the same.

Can Alex Wood insert himself into the NL Cy Young conversation?

Alex Wood is finally an All-Star this year, but that isn’t even the biggest surprise from him in 2017. He has arguably been the best pitcher on the Dodgers this year and one of the top pitchers in all of baseball.

He is 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.03 FIP, 246 ERA+, and 0.2 HR/9 this year. These are numbers that would make anyone the odds-on favorite for the Cy Young Award and even in contention for the MVP Award.

Alex Wood’s only problem? His late start. He has only thrown 80.2 innings. He needs to average at least one inning per game to qualify for the leaderboards in these categories. This means he’d need at least 162 innings and he’s half way there. However, his 80.2 innings came in 90 games, and he will have 20 fewer games post the ASG.

Even if he were to qualify, he most likely would not have the innings to even compete with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, as those two are workhorses who will go 200+ in that department.

Earlier in the season when he returned to the rotation, Wood would only last about five innings and would hardly pitch into the sixth. This was due to his pitch inefficiency and the Dodgers monitoring him after his injury in 2016.

He has lasted deeper into games more recently, but you can count on LA to limit his workload to keep him healthy and fresh for October. It’s also no guarantee that he will continue to pitch as he has so far, although metrics say he is legit. Even if he weren’t in the conversation for the Cy, he deserves a lot more national attention than he has been receiving.

Justin Turner’s quest for a .400 average and/or batting title

This might be the most intriguing one in my opinion. No one has hit for a .400 average since Ted William back in 1941, not even the late, great, Tony Gwynn, although he did come close with a .394 average in 1994.

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Justin Turner is currently hitting .377 and has been hovering around the .380 over the last 26 games (dating back to the May 19th game he hurt his hamstring in). At no point during the season has his average dropped below .342. Just think about that. He has been raking since Opening Day.

There is a reason reaching the .400 mark for an entire season hasn’t been done in 76 years, but Turner can make a good run at it. He puts in a quality at-bat every time out, has great plate awareness, hardly strikes out, makes great contact, and can hit to all parts of the field with ease. That and he is hitting off lefties this year after struggling last season.

The more obtainable achievement, though, is the batting title. At his rate, he could lead the entire MLB and not just the Nationa League. Daniel Murphy paces the NL with a .342 average while Jose Altuve is the leader in all of baseball with a .347 average.

To qualify for the batting title, a player must average at least 3.1 plate appearances per game over 162 games, which comes out to at least 502 plate appearances in a full season.

Even with the missed time, he is close to qualifying for the leaderboards. The Dodgers have played in 90 games which means he’d need 279 plate appearances to qualify currently. He is at 274 right now.

You can apply the Tony Gwynn Rule to Turner, which would mean adding the necessary plate appearances to a player’s season total to meet the minimum requirement to qualify. But the caveat is they will go down as hitless at-bats.

Next: Handling Kenley and Pedro

In JT’s case, it means adding five hitless at-bats to bring his total from 274 to 279. Even then, he’d still lead all of baseball with a .369 average, so he’s got a great headstart.