Dodgers: Analyzing the Panic Meter for Disappointing Players

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SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 2: Yu Darvish /

By now it’s been well documented that the Dodgers are in the middle of their worst streak this season. The club has lost six consecutive games and has dropped 11 out of the last 12, including being swept by the second place Diamondbacks twice.

Naturally, Dodger fans are beginning to panic. But the reality is that baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and stretches like these are bound to happen to any team. Going back to the last two season, the defending World Champion Chicago Cubs had two poor stretches similar to the one the Dodgers are currently on. The Cubs lost nine of ten at the end of June and eight of 12 in the middle of May. Before the Cubs, the Kansas City Royals also had a losing streak, losing nine of eleven and nine of twelve at the beginning of September.

The point here is that stretches like these happen to even championship caliber teams. Does it bring a sense of anxiety for Dodger fans? Sure, but it’s not the end of the season. A few days ago we asked our followers on Twitter if it was time to panic.

Dodgers lose and now have a 4 game losing streak. the #Dodgers are 1-9 in their last 10 games. What are your thoughts? Time to panic?
— Dodgers' Way (@DodgersWayFS) September 5, 2017

The results we’re torn, but after this recent sweep and fourth consecutive series loss. I’m sure if we ask again the answer will surely be swayed more in one direction. And it’s perfectly reasonable, the Dodgers’ lead in the NL West is now only 10.5 games after being over 20 games for the greater part of the last two months. I know that sentence sound very spoiled, but that in fact, is what Dodger fans have been this season. Perhaps a more important stat to look at is their lead for the best record in the NL is down to only seven games over the Nationals.

So should Dodger fans panic? It depends on what you consider to be panic? Will we miss the playoffs? No. Will we break the record for most wins in a season? No. Will we win the World Series? I’m not sure, but was our regular season hot streak ever any indication that we were? I may not be able to answer whether you should panic on this team, but I’ll look into a few players that are frustrating Dodger fans and determine if and how bad we should panic over these particular players.

Pedro Baez

Oh Pedro Baez, so we meet again. It wasn’t that long ago that Saeed Villanueva wrote an article about you potentially being a closer for some team in a few years. Boy how far we have come from that point.

Baez was dominant in his setup role with the Dodgers during the first four months of the season, posting an ERA of 1.40 through July. However, once the calendar turned over to August, the dominant Baez that we thought we knew was long gone.

In August, Baez really struggled with an ERA of 3.38 and allowed two home runs in 10 2/3 innings pitched. In his first three appearances so far in September, it has been more of an extension of August. Baez has allowed five earned runs, including three home runs and has failed to pitch a complete inning.

Baez was supposed to be our setup man in the postseason, but it looks like his inability to locate his fastball has resulted in his home run issue to resurfacing late in the season. This year he has only allowed 11.1% of his inherited runners to score when entering a game, which is not bad. That is a far better number than his 44% last season and 16.7 % in the postseason.

Pedro has electric stuff to become a dominant pitcher. Where he loses the trust of Dave Roberts, and Dodger fans is when he allows the long balls in high leverage situations. Unfortauntely for Baez the postseason is all high leverage, and Dave Roberts needs to consider how he uses him come October. Baez is one of the most talented relievers in our bullpen, and a rough two months isn’t going to erase a dominant four months to start the season. Baez will undoubtedly be on the postseason roster; I just don’t think it will be late in games anymore.

Panic Meter: 8/10 – “Screaming and flailing!”

Yu Darvish

Darvish is a victim of high expectations since being traded to the Dodgers. The splash got so much media attention that Dodger fans were already proclaiming this team World Champions before even seeing him in a Dodger uniform.

Similar to Rich Hill of last season, Darvish has had his fair share of ups and downs as a Dodger. He had a stellar first impression striking out ten in seven scoreless innings, but then wound up on the DL. Since being traded to LA, Darvish has started five games for the boys in blue. Darvish is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 26 innings pitched. Very modest numbers for a pitcher that was supposed to push the Dodgers over the hill.

So what does this mean?

The fact that Darvish has a high ERA is not surprising to me. He has a career 3.45 ERA and did not gain his pedigree by throwing up scoreless innings. Instead, Darvish got his reputation by being one of the filthiest pitchers in the MLB, and for the most part, that has translated to over in his five starts with the Dodgers as he has a K/9 over 11.

What’s concerning to me here is the home runs he’s allowed. Moving from Arlington Field to Dodger Stadium was supposed to be an upgrade for Darvish. Instead, Darvish has allowed six home runs in five starts as a Dodger.

Darvish is the clear cut number two on the roster. No disrespect to Hill or Wood, but Darvish is a pitcher that could put the pressure on any given offense. He may not put together a streak of scoreless innings like Kershaw would, but Darvish can at least keep hitters off the bases with his high strikeout numbers. Dave Roberts will go into the playoffs with Darvish as his comfortable number two starter. It makes the most sense as he has the highest upside out of all our pitchers not named Kershaw and splits the rotation by adding a right-hander.

Panic Meter: 3/10 – “Grumbling…”

PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 09: Tony Cingrani /

Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson

When the July 31st trade deadline approached the front office identified two needs. One was a right-handed starter, and the other was a left-handed reliever. After several attempts to try and pry away left-handed closer Zach Britton from the Baltimore Orioles, the front office landed on Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani.

Before joining the Dodgers, both pitchers had their struggles throughout the season. Neither was considered to be the lefty specialist the Dodgers were looking for, but the front office brought them in in hopes of finding some hidden talent at a much-reduced cost. Both players are talented.

Both players are talented. Cigrani is a former starter that has good strikeout upside but struggles with his control far too often to pitch deep into games. Watson was a former closer for the Pirates and had success last season; this season is very much a down year for him compared to his past years.

Why are they on the panic meter? The mere fact that they haven’t dominated left-handed hitters like the Dodgers would like them to be. Watson and Cingrani have pitched a combined 25 innings since joining the Dodgers and have a collective 3.60 ERA. Cingrani has a high strikeout rate in August allowed five inherited runners score when brought in with runners on base. Watson also allowed five inherited runners to score during August and had a relatively high walk rate at 2.79 BB/9.

Each player is allowing left-handers to hit better than .230 against them, so they aren’t by any means a situational lefty. That certainly isn’t bad but means there’s room for improvement. Cingrani has the slightly better numbers and has high upside with his strikeout potential, but Watson has experience closing games. The Dodgers are low on left-handed relievers options with Luis Avilan and Edward Paredes being the only other two lefties in the bullpen. Roberts is going to need to carry two on their postseason roster, and at least for now I don’t think anyone of these guys has separated himself from the others, which could be an issue in the postseason.

Panic Meter: 6/10 – “We need to fix this soon…”

Logan Forsythe

More from Dodgers Way

Forsythe has been one of the bigger disappointments this year. He’s bee injured and unproductive, two things that really get a team’s fan base when you’re a newcomer. On the season Forsythe is hitting .230 with four home runs and 28 RBI in 98 games. Those numbers are a shade of his career .252 average and 20 home runs he hit with the Rays last season.

The question with Forsythe is why does Dave Roberts continue to jam him into lineups against right-handed pitching. Against lefties, Forsythe is more than competent hitting .301/.443/.447. But against righties are where he really struggles with a .194/.317/.249 slash line. Roberts has platooned Forsythe with Chase Utley for the greater part of the season, but it might be time to look at options besides those two.

Austin Barnes is the best backup catcher in the league. He’s even more valuable to the team because he can play second base. Michael Wittman made a case for Barnes becoming the everyday second baseman while the Dodgers figure out their log jam in the outfield, and I can’t say that’s a bad idea. Barnes is hitting .294/.405/.480 on the season and ironically enough hits righties (.346 BA) better than lefties (.250 BA).

Barnes drastic splits could be evened out with more playing time. Another option Roberts could consider is put Chris Taylor back at second base and rotate the several outfielders we have. At this point, we have more talented outfielders than infielders. Forsythe could thrive in the bench role in the postseason. He’s not a super utility player like Kike Hernandez, but he’s able to play multiple infield positions and has even played some outfield this year.

I wonder if Roberts would consider leaving Forsythe off the postseason roster if he continues to struggle. I don’t think it’s likely, but if a young outfielder like Alex Verdugo or Joc Pederson start squaring up the ball leaving Forsythe off the roster is something that should be considered. I understand that by inserting Barnes at second base leaves the bench without a backup catcher, but Barnes could make the switch in a game if needed.

Next: Seager's Impact on the Lineup

I can see Forsythe’s experience giving him the edge to land a roster spot, that’s fine. But how much longer is Roberts going to accept this type of production when there are capable bats on the bench?