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Dodgers: The Preferred NLDS Matchup Between Arizona and Colorado
Now that the Dodgers have locked up home-field for the National League playoffs and are on the verge of locking up home field for the entire post-season, it’s time to look ahead to potential NLDS opponents.
The Diamondbacks have already clinched the first wild-card spot in the National League and the second breakdown is still technically up for grabs. However, the Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Rockies with only three games left, so it’s basically the Rockies’ spot barring an epic collapse. Due to that, the opponents talked about here will be the Rockies and the Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers have a losing record against both of their prospective NLDS opponents, although they still do have three games left with the Rockies. Barring a sweep or losing two games against them, they will finish with a losing record against Colorado as they currently are 7-9 against them.
Against Arizona, LA is 8-11. They had early season success against the Diamondbacks, but September has been a rough go against them.
If there is a silver lining, it is that the Diamondbacks threw out their top three starting pitchers in both series, while the Dodgers did not use Kershaw, Darvish or Alex Wood.
To break down which team the Dodgers should want to face in the first round, the lineup, rotation and bullpen of both the Rockies and Diamondbacks will be examined.
Starting Rotations
When it comes to starting pitching, the Diamondbacks hold a distinct advantage over the Rockies. Not only do they have the better known starting pitchers, but statistically they are a lot better.
The Dbacks rank 2nd in the Major Leagues behind only the Dodgers with a 3.60 ERA. The Rockies, on the other hand, are middle of the pack at 15th with a 4.61 ERA from their starting rotation.
While Coors Field is the most pronounced hitters’ park, Chase Field is not too far behind, which makes the Dbacks’ starting pitching that more impressive.
Let’s take a look at how each team has fared against the Dodgers this season:
Rockies – 4.50 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 IP
Dbacks – 3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 IP
Overall, the Dbacks have allowed almost one less run per game against the Dodgers than the Rockies have. Both teams have a high strikeout ratio against, which isn’t surprising since both are loaded with hard-throwing pitchers.
The Diamondbacks have the rotation that gives the Dodgers fits. Robbie Ray has been the chief nemesis, boasting a 2.27 ERA in 31.2 innings scattered across five starts along with a ridiculous 53 strikeouts (an unfathomable 15.1 K/9).
In fact, the Dbacks’ projected playoff rotation of Greinke, Ray, Walker and Godley all have ERAs under four against the Dodgers this season.
The one advantage the Dodgers do have is that whoever advances to face LA will not be able to use their number one starter until Game Two or Three. That means more against the Diamondbacks since their ace Zack Greinke is the man who will get the ball in the one-game Wild Card playoff.
This means the Dodgers would have to go against Robbie Ray Game One, but Los Angeles would have Kershaw on the mound and then they could possibly be up 2-0 before Greinke gets to toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are built more on overall depth of mediocre depth, so it doesn’t matter who they choose for the wild-card game.
Bullpens
Just as the Diamondbacks have had success against the Dodgers with their starting rotation, the Rockies’ bullpen has been far more effective against them.
Although the Dbacks have the lower bullpen ERA of 3.87 compared to the 4.31 of the Rockies pen, the Dodgers would match rather have to come back against the Dbacks bullpen than the Rockies.
The Rockies’ pen is led by the resurgent Greg Holland who has converted an impressive 41 of 45 save attempts.
For the Dbacks, they have had way more issues in the ninth inning as closer Fernando Rodney has an ERA over four.
Anytime Rodney comes into the game, he seems to make things interesting with base runners on, which is a terrible idea come October. Holland, on the other hand, has been lights out against LA.
Both teams have excellent setup men as the Rockies have mid-season trade acquisition Pat Neshek, and the Dbacks have Dodger “fan favorite” Archie Bradley. Bradley is easily the better relief pitcher than Rodney, but either way, he is a very tough opponent, and LA will have to face him.
When it comes to southpaw relievers, the Rockies are better equipped to neutralize the likes of Seager, Bellinger and Granderson with Jake McGee and the hard-throwing Mike Dunn. Neshek is also a reverse splits guy so the Rockies have three relievers who can get the Dodgers’ left-handed hitters out with the game on the line.
If the boys in blue have to come back to win late in the game, they would be better off going against the Diamondbacks.
Lineups
Both the Diamondbacks and Rockies have lethal lineups and playing the Rockies would mean going to the horror house that is Coors Field. Let’s take a look at how both teams have hit against the Dodgers this season:
Dbacks – .250 AVG, .319 OBP, .782 OPS, 32 HR
Rockies – .252 AVG, .313 OBP, .729 OPS, 18 HR
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The numbers are pretty close, but the Diamondbacks are better at getting on base along with better at hitting for power against the Dodgers. Both teams feature multiple MVP candidates as the Diamondbacks have JD Martinez and Paul Goldschmidt, while the Rockies have Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon.
Despite both teams having numerous power hitters, the Dodgers would much rather face the Rockies than the Diamondbacks as the Dodgers have been tormented by JD Martinez and Paul Goldschmidt this season.
Martinez had a four home run game against Los Angeles, and Goldschmidt has made an excellent living squaring off LA. Also, Martinez has been absolute supernova since arriving at the desert. The Dbacks also have an excellent third power hitter in Jake Lamb who is having a career year.
After breaking down the three core elements between the Dbacks and Rockies, it should be pretty clear that the Dodgers should be rooting for the Rockies to win the wild card game rather than the Diamondbacks.
While Los Angeles won’t be afraid to face either team, they would be better off avoiding Greinke, Ray, Goldschmidt and Martinez in the playoffs. Despite their reputation for being Dodger killers, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon would be a welcome sight as it would mean avoiding the Diamondbacks.
Next: Darvish heating up at the right time
The Dbacks are better equipped to give Los Angeles a tough time in the NLDS and possibly pull off an upset.