Dodgers: Bullpen Decisions in Possible NLDS Matchups

Arizona Diamondbacks

With the exclusion of Kenley Jansen, who is guaranteed to make the playoff roster, here is how the Dodgers’ bullpen has fared lifetime against Arizona:

Looking at this chart, several things pop out immediately. The first (and perhaps most alarming) the thing is that Pedro Baez has absolutely dominated the Diamondbacks. In fact, he has the lowest batting average against them in his career out of all Dodger bullpen members not named Jansen. Baez has had a horrible two months, but these numbers are tough to ignore.

The other number that pops out is how well Tony Cingrani has done versus Tony Watson and Luis Avilan. In a battle of left-handed relieving, it seems as though two of these three guys will be making the playoff roster. (Avilan is supposed to miss the NLDS so Watson should make it). With a .227 batting average against and 17 strikeouts, Cingrani seems like the front-runner in an Arizona match-up.

Cingrani and Baez also match up great against the Diamondbacks’ starting roster* as well, both holding them to under .200 batting averages.

Cingrani has less experience against them but has held their starters to a .158 batting average. Based off of these stats, as well as whether or not Roberts carries a five-man bench, here are the probables:

Baez, Cingrani, Fields, Jansen, Maeda, Morrow, Stewart, Stripling, Watson

*Assuming a lineup that consists of Ianetta, Goldschmidt, Drury, Marte, Lamb, Peralta, Pollock and Martinez*

Colorado Rockies

Again with the exclusion of Kenley Jansen, here is how the Dodgers’ bullpen has fared lifetime against Colorado (*before this past weekend’s series):

In a possible Colorado match-up, Pedro Baez again is near the top of all relievers in both experience and success. Baez has 76 career match-ups with Colorado’s current roster and has held them to a batting average of below .145 overall.

What’s interesting about the possibility of a Colorado matchup, is that based off of success there may end up being three left-handed relievers coming out of the pen. Cingrani and Watson have both held the Rockies roster to under .205 averages. LA may look to Alex Wood or Hyun-Jin Ryu to be the third.

Against the assumed starting lineup* of Colorado has been mostly the same results for these guys. In fact, except for Buehler, Ryu and Stewart, the Dodgers’ bullpen has done quite well against Colorado.

Again, based off of these stats, as well as whether or not Roberts carries a five-man bench, here are the probables:

Baez, Cingrani, Fields, Jansen, Maeda, Morrow, Watson, Wood, Stripling

*Assuming a starting lineup of Lucroy, Reynolds, LaMahieu, Story, Arenado, Parra, Blackmon and Gonzalez.*

Again, the decision will ultimately be based upon which team advances to the Division Series to face Los Angeles. While Arizona certainly appears for a decent postseason run, nothing can be assumed.

And while history does carry a lot of weight in roster decisions, don’t forget to count in hot streaks (or cold streaks in the case of Baez). Some people are playing much too well to be automatically excluded from October based off of their past.

And then there are guys like Walker Buehler, who has almost no experience against these teams. In fact, Buehler has barely any big league experience at all.

Next: Rich Hill Flying Under the Radar

And yet, he finds himself right in the middle of roster decisions. With the electrifying stuff he has, it will be hard for Dave Roberts to send the kid home in October.