Dodgers: Bullpen Decisions in Possible NLDS Matchups

With the playoffs looming, the Dodgers’ management has some big decisions to make. The most difficult decision of the year may come down to bullpen roster.

Dave Roberts faced a few big roster decisions last October, but that is nothing compared to what he has to face this year. And the sad truth is that no matter who he (and the front office) ultimately chooses if the Dodgers don’t win a title, he will be blamed. Whoever Roberts and company decide to utilize come playoff time will be selected as a result of their opponent.

Since it is not a clear-cut decision, they will no doubt be looking at roster decisions on a match-up basis. When the division series comes, the Dodgers will likely be facing either the Diamondbacks or the Rockies. And while the streaking Diamondbacks seem like the most likely opponent at this time, anything is possible in baseball.

Looking at the possibility of those two teams, the bullpen decisions become much easier. Statistically, let’s take a look at how the Dodgers’ bullpen members have matched up against the two teams:

Colorado Rockies

Again with the exclusion of Kenley Jansen, here is how the Dodgers’ bullpen has fared lifetime against Colorado (*before this past weekend’s series):

In a possible Colorado match-up, Pedro Baez again is near the top of all relievers in both experience and success. Baez has 76 career match-ups with Colorado’s current roster and has held them to a batting average of below .145 overall.

What’s interesting about the possibility of a Colorado matchup, is that based off of success there may end up being three left-handed relievers coming out of the pen. Cingrani and Watson have both held the Rockies roster to under .205 averages. LA may look to Alex Wood or Hyun-Jin Ryu to be the third.

Against the assumed starting lineup* of Colorado has been mostly the same results for these guys. In fact, except for Buehler, Ryu and Stewart, the Dodgers’ bullpen has done quite well against Colorado.

Again, based off of these stats, as well as whether or not Roberts carries a five-man bench, here are the probables:

Baez, Cingrani, Fields, Jansen, Maeda, Morrow, Watson, Wood, Stripling

*Assuming a starting lineup of Lucroy, Reynolds, LaMahieu, Story, Arenado, Parra, Blackmon and Gonzalez.*

Again, the decision will ultimately be based upon which team advances to the Division Series to face Los Angeles. While Arizona certainly appears for a decent postseason run, nothing can be assumed.

And while history does carry a lot of weight in roster decisions, don’t forget to count in hot streaks (or cold streaks in the case of Baez). Some people are playing much too well to be automatically excluded from October based off of their past.

And then there are guys like Walker Buehler, who has almost no experience against these teams. In fact, Buehler has barely any big league experience at all.

Next: Rich Hill Flying Under the Radar

And yet, he finds himself right in the middle of roster decisions. With the electrifying stuff he has, it will be hard for Dave Roberts to send the kid home in October.