Dodgers: Which AL Team Do the Dodgers Match Up Best With?

The Dodgers once again find themselves sitting at home awaiting their opponent for the next round.  This time it’s for the World Series. Regardless of who wins game seven of the ALCS, the Dodgers will have two extra rest days and not have to travel.

By virtue of the Astros 7-1 win over the Yankees in game six of the ALCS, the Astros and Yankees will once again square off on Saturday to decide who the Dodgers will play in their first World Series appearance since 1988.  One advantage the Dodgers have over both potential American league opponents is that the Dodgers will have four days of rest instead of two, and the Dodgers don’t have to travel with the first two games being in Los Angeles.

While some pundits have brought up how the Dodgers have been more rested than their opponents, that is due in large part because of the Dodgers finishing with the best record in baseball and the Dodgers making short work of the Diamondbacks and Cubs.  Whether the Dodgers end up facing Jose Altuve and the Astros, or Aaron Judge and the Yankees, both potential heavyweight opponents bring their own strength and weaknesses.

While the Dodger bullpen has been virtually un-hittable this post-season, the Yankees also feature a very tough bullpen that on paper was the best in the post-season before the playoffs began.  The Yankees feature the hardest thrower in baseball in Aroldis Chapman, and he is a proven closer after helping the Cubs win the World Series last year.  The Yankee bullpen features other flamethrowers in Tommy Kahnle, Delin Betances, and Chad Green.  The Yankees also brought back David Robertson this season, and he features a wipeout curveball as well as pinpoint accuracy.

The Astros bullpen was good in the regular season but has had some struggles in the playoffs.  Ken Giles is their closer and brings an upper 90’s fastball but has struggled in October as his ERA is close to nine.  The Astros also have World Baseball Classic Team USA closer Luke Gregerson who has not yet allowed a run this post-season.  They also have a multi-inning weapon in Chris Devenski who fills the Ross Stripling role for the Astros.   The one knock on the Astro pen is that they do not have a wipeout lefty reliever to neutralize Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger.  Even though Bellinger and Seager have hit well against southpaws this season, they still hit better against right-handed pitchers.

Edge: When it comes down to the pens the Yankees have the far superior bullpen.  Just like the Dodger pen, the Yankees bullpen shortens the games, and if the Dodgers are trailing after five innings, they will have a tough time scoring off the New York bullpen if they are pitching to the best of their abilities.  As it is currently constructed the Astro bullpen is very reminiscent of the Cubs bullpen in that they have a reliable closer but the issue is getting the ball over to their closer.  Delin Betances is now a mop-up pitcher for the Yankees pen which is saying something since he made the All-Star team this season.

When it comes to the lineups, the Dodgers will find themselves with plenty to handle when it comes to the lineup of the Astros or Yankees.  If the Yankees advance the Dodgers will have to keep Aaron Judge inside the ballpark.  The Yankees feature a sweet young yet powerful middle of the order with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius.  They also feature some solid veteran hitters like Brett Gardner, Todd Frazier, and Starlin Castro.  While Judge continues to whiff at a high rate he does have four home runs this post-season.  Gregorius and Sanchez both have three home runs this month so, between the 2-3-4 hitters of the Yankees, they have combined for ten home runs this post-season.

The Astros lineup would be no stroll in the park for the Dodgers either.  Jose Altuve has hit over .400 this post-season, and like Judge, he has four home runs.  Much like the Dodgers have Corey Seager, the Astros have another talented young shortstop in Carlos Correa. He has belted three home runs this post-season and is another dangerous hitter.  George Spring and Alex Bregman are another pair of Astro hitters who can turn on a fastball at any moment.  The weakest hitter in the lineup has been former Dodger Josh Reddick who has not yet recorded a hit in the ALCS.

Edge:  The Astros appear to have the advantage offensively.  While the Yankees have a ton of power, they strike out a ton, and against the Dodger pitching staff, they would fall victim to many strikeouts.  While strikeouts aren’t that big of a deal in today’s game, it is still hard to string together long rallies with a strikeout-prone lineup.  The Astros lineup will put the ball in play more, and Altuve is a threat to homer in each plate appearance.  The Astros hitters would make the Dodger pitching staff work extra hard to record outs.

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All rise, for the final verdict.  The Yankees and Aaron Judge are the tougher matchup for the Dodgers than the Houston Astros.  While the Dodgers will likely have to beat Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel twice, the other factors work in the Dodgers favor.  The Dodgers appear set to grind out their at-bats and get the starting pitcher out of the game early.  This would not be an effective strategy against the Yankees.  The Yankees bullpen is very tough, so even if the Dodgers get the Yankee starters out of the game, they would be rewarded with one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The Astros team reminds me of the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Just as the Diamondbacks have Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray, the Astros have Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel.  If the Dodgers drive up the pitch count for Verlander and Keuchel like they have all post-season, they would have a much easier time facing off against the Astros bullpen.  The Astros bullpen is not playoff tested and could struggle to nail down late outs against the Dodgers.

While both lineups feature plenty of power, the Astros lineup has had a few holes in it this October.  Bregman, McCann, Reddick, and Marwin Gonzalez have all hit below .200 this post-season.  For the Yankees, they have some pop at the bottom of their lineup in Greg Bird and Starlin Castro.  Not to mention while both AL ballparks have small fences, the Yankees stadium has seen balls that look like routine fly balls end up as home runs.  Regardless of who ends up winning the AL the Dodgers will be in for a battle if they want to end their World Series drought.  Dodger fans should be rooting for the Astros on Saturday as they are the better matchup for the Dodgers.

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