Dodgers: Which AL Team Do the Dodgers Match Up Best With?

The Dodgers once again find themselves sitting at home awaiting their opponent for the next round.  This time it’s for the World Series. Regardless of who wins game seven of the ALCS, the Dodgers will have two extra rest days and not have to travel.

By virtue of the Astros 7-1 win over the Yankees in game six of the ALCS, the Astros and Yankees will once again square off on Saturday to decide who the Dodgers will play in their first World Series appearance since 1988.  One advantage the Dodgers have over both potential American league opponents is that the Dodgers will have four days of rest instead of two, and the Dodgers don’t have to travel with the first two games being in Los Angeles.

While some pundits have brought up how the Dodgers have been more rested than their opponents, that is due in large part because of the Dodgers finishing with the best record in baseball and the Dodgers making short work of the Diamondbacks and Cubs.  Whether the Dodgers end up facing Jose Altuve and the Astros, or Aaron Judge and the Yankees, both potential heavyweight opponents bring their own strength and weaknesses.

When it comes to the starting rotations of the Astros and Yankees, they share a common theme which is that both clubs acquired a starting pitcher that the Dodgers were rumored to have interest in at some point this season.  The Astros acquired Verlander in a waiver deadline deal while the Yankees traded for Sonny Gray in a non-waiver trade deadline deal.  Both starters have had success with their new teams, but Verlander has had more post-season success this season.

The Astros potential World Series rotation figures to have Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton.  While Keuchel and Verlander would most likely be very tough against the Dodgers, the Dodgers have faced a similar 1-2 lefty-righty punch in Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray.  Morton and McCullers both have been good when healthy, but both were plagued by injuries this season and are not as battle-tested in the post-season, let alone the World Series.  Verlander has been lights out this post-season boasting an ERA close to 1.00.

The Yankees potential World Series rotation would be Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, and CC Sabathia.  While Sabathia is getting older and no longer throws in the mid-nineties, he is still a savvy veteran who knows how pitch and has posted a 2.30 ERA in three post-season starts.  Tanaka has been virtually un-hittable with an ERA under one, and while Severino has an ERA over five, that is due to his disastrous AL Wild Card start where he was lit up while recording only one out.

Edge:  The Yankees boast the better rotation overall.  While the Astros are top heavy with Keuchel and Verlander, they are beatable after that with McCullers and Morton.  The Yankees throw out three veteran starters who know how to pitch in the post-season, and they also feature a young flamethrower, Luis Severino.  Severino throws in the upper 90’s consistently like Verlander does and also features a wipeout slider that is faster than Rich Hill’s fastball.

While the Dodger bullpen has been virtually un-hittable this post-season, the Yankees also feature a very tough bullpen that on paper was the best in the post-season before the playoffs began.  The Yankees feature the hardest thrower in baseball in Aroldis Chapman, and he is a proven closer after helping the Cubs win the World Series last year.  The Yankee bullpen features other flamethrowers in Tommy Kahnle, Delin Betances, and Chad Green.  The Yankees also brought back David Robertson this season, and he features a wipeout curveball as well as pinpoint accuracy.

The Astros bullpen was good in the regular season but has had some struggles in the playoffs.  Ken Giles is their closer and brings an upper 90’s fastball but has struggled in October as his ERA is close to nine.  The Astros also have World Baseball Classic Team USA closer Luke Gregerson who has not yet allowed a run this post-season.  They also have a multi-inning weapon in Chris Devenski who fills the Ross Stripling role for the Astros.   The one knock on the Astro pen is that they do not have a wipeout lefty reliever to neutralize Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger.  Even though Bellinger and Seager have hit well against southpaws this season, they still hit better against right-handed pitchers.

Edge: When it comes down to the pens the Yankees have the far superior bullpen.  Just like the Dodger pen, the Yankees bullpen shortens the games, and if the Dodgers are trailing after five innings, they will have a tough time scoring off the New York bullpen if they are pitching to the best of their abilities.  As it is currently constructed the Astro bullpen is very reminiscent of the Cubs bullpen in that they have a reliable closer but the issue is getting the ball over to their closer.  Delin Betances is now a mop-up pitcher for the Yankees pen which is saying something since he made the All-Star team this season.

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All rise, for the final verdict.  The Yankees and Aaron Judge are the tougher matchup for the Dodgers than the Houston Astros.  While the Dodgers will likely have to beat Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel twice, the other factors work in the Dodgers favor.  The Dodgers appear set to grind out their at-bats and get the starting pitcher out of the game early.  This would not be an effective strategy against the Yankees.  The Yankees bullpen is very tough, so even if the Dodgers get the Yankee starters out of the game, they would be rewarded with one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The Astros team reminds me of the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Just as the Diamondbacks have Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray, the Astros have Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel.  If the Dodgers drive up the pitch count for Verlander and Keuchel like they have all post-season, they would have a much easier time facing off against the Astros bullpen.  The Astros bullpen is not playoff tested and could struggle to nail down late outs against the Dodgers.

While both lineups feature plenty of power, the Astros lineup has had a few holes in it this October.  Bregman, McCann, Reddick, and Marwin Gonzalez have all hit below .200 this post-season.  For the Yankees, they have some pop at the bottom of their lineup in Greg Bird and Starlin Castro.  Not to mention while both AL ballparks have small fences, the Yankees stadium has seen balls that look like routine fly balls end up as home runs.  Regardless of who ends up winning the AL the Dodgers will be in for a battle if they want to end their World Series drought.  Dodger fans should be rooting for the Astros on Saturday as they are the better matchup for the Dodgers.

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