Dodgers vs. Astros: Which Starting Rotation has the Edge?

The wait is almost over for the Dodgers, as the first pitch of the World Series is less than 10 hours away.  Both teams feature very good starting rotations, but which one has the edge?

The Dodgers are known for the luxury of having too many starting pitchers. While their quantity is very good, they also have quality depth. After all, Kenta Maeda is now a late inning reliever for the Dodgers, and Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu did not even crack the playoff roster in any series.  The Dodgers starting rotation has been in place for most of the season, the one big move they made was acquiring Yu Darvish in a buzzer beater type deadline deal.

The Astros have a very similar blue print as the Dodgers in regards to their starting rotation. The Astros have a good amount of depth, and like the Dodgers, they made a big waiver deadline deal to acquire the longtime Tiger’s ace.  Like Darvish, Justin Verlander has been very good for the Astros this post-season and I think it’s safe to say they would not be in the World Series if they did not bring Verlander over to Houston.

While both starting rotations for the World Series are very good, which one has the edge?  The Dodgers can trot out four very good starters while the Astros have a solid four also, but they are very top heavy.  After Keuchel and Verlander there is a big drop down to Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton.  For the Dodgers, their fourth starter Alex Wood won 16 games while missing time throughout the season.  That speaks volumes about the quality of their rotation depth.  So the big question is which rotation has the edge in each matchup?

Game One – Clayton Kershaw (2-0, 3.63 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2-1, 2.60 ERA)

In game one of the World Series, the starting pitching matchup features two former Cy Young award winners.  Both Kershaw and Keuchel have had injuries this season, but when healthy, both are top ten pitchers in baseball.  In game one they will square off against one another to try to boost their teams to a great start in the World Series.

Kershaw cruised in game five of the NLCS, going six innings and allowing only one earned run.  Even though Kershaw had an abundance of run support in his last post-season start, that has not been the case for much of his post-season career. If Kershaw had received better run support and bullpen support, then we might not be hearing the old Kershaw playoff narrative.  Kershaw has been very good this post-season except for a bad seventh inning in the NLDS.  Taking out that one inning and there would be talk about Kershaw as the playoff MVP so far.

Dallas Keuchel comes into his first World Series start, on the heels of a mediocre start.  Keuchel did not make it through five innings in his second start of the ALCS and allowed four earned runs.  His previous two playoff starts were much better as he allowed only one run total in two starts against the Red Sox and Yankees.  Keuchel fits the Jose Quintana mold in that he will not overpower you, and he relies on a cutter and sinker to get groundball outs.  Keuchel won’t top 90 miles per hour many times, and needs pinpoint location to be effective.

Hitters to Watch:

Jose Altuve – Altuve is 6-15 with four doubles off of Kershaw.  Four of those hits were doubles so Kershaw will need to be very careful with Altuve as will any other pitcher would need to be.

Logan Forsythe – Forsythe is 7-20 against Keuchel and his faced him plenty of times since he was in the American League with the Rays.  Forsythe has had a quiet but a productive post-season and could provide a big hit against Keuchel.

Edge: Dodgers

With no disrespect to Keuchel who is a top-tier pitcher himself, Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and a once in a generation type pitcher.  All post-season narratives aside you have to feel an abundance of confidence knowing you have the best pitcher in the world going for you.  The Dodgers hit lefties well this season and will look for some more big hits out of Kike Hernandez to drive the Dodgers to a game one win.

Game Two: Rich Hill probable (0-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (4-0, 1.46 ERA)

Game two of the World Series will feature two veterans who at one point or another were left for dead on the baseball field.  Verlander went through some struggles over the past few seasons before rebounding last year and following it up with another strong season this year.  In this post-season, he has been arguably the best pitcher of any team.  Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.46 this October and has yet to have a start that is not a quality start.

On the opposing side of Verlander will be Rich Hill.  There are many feel-good stories as good as Hill who finds himself starting a World Series game after working his way back from Independent league baseball.  Hill has not been overly special this post-season, but he has kept the Dodgers in the game for both of his starts.  Against the Diamondbacks, he went four innings allowing two runs, and against the Cubs, he went five innings allowing only one earned run.

The game plan for the Dodgers will be to grind out their at-bats and get to the Astros bullpen.  With Hill on the mound, the Dodgers will need him to go five strong innings before handing the game over to their shutdown bullpen. If the Dodgers are going to win the World Series, they will need to beat Verlander at least once, so game two would be a good time to find a way to win.

Hitters to watch

Curtis Granderson – It’s not a lock that Granderson even makes the World Series roster, but he has the most experience against Verlander, homering twice in 24 at-bats, including a home run against him this season.

Carlos Beltran – Much like Granderson isn’t a lock to make the roster. Beltran is no lock to play game two without the designated hitter in use.  If he does play, Beltran has one home run and a .818 OPS against Hill in eleven at-bats.

Edge: Astros

Much like Keuchel against Kershaw, this is not a knock against Rich Hill.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers beat Verlander but the Astros definitely have the edge in game two.  Verlander has been an animal this post-season and will look to shine for the Astros under the bright lights of Hollywood.  Let’s hope the local team flips the script on the game’s biggest stage.

Game Three: Yu Darvish (2-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Charlie Morton (1-1, 6.23 ERA)

Once the first two games of the series are over this is where the Dodgers deep rotation will factor in.  The Astros will encounter a familiar enemy when Yu Darvish toes the rubber for the Dodgers.  Darvish faced the Astros twice this season going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA.  Darvish has made some adjustments since he came over to the Dodgers so it will be interesting to see how those tweaks pay off.  This post-season Darvish has been as good as advertised going 2-0 with victories over the Diamondbacks and Cubs.

Charlie Morton is expected to get the ball for game three. However, the Astros could start McCullers game three and Morton game four.  Morton has seen the Dodgers a few times since he had National League stints with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies most recently.  Morton is a guy that features a very heavy sinker with lots of movement, and he can get it up there at 96 miles per hour with movement.  Although he pitched five good innings in game seven of the ALCS, his prior two starts were mixed results.  His first start against the Yankees he was blasted for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings.  The Dodgers will need to use their tendency to work the count and make Morton throw strikes.

Hitters to watch

George Springer – Springer has had success against Darvish as he has homered off him twice in only eighteen at bats.  He has struck out five times so as his book says, Springer is hit or miss against Darvish but has had success when he connects.

Chase Utley – It will be interesting to see if Utley gets a start when Morton is on the mound.  Utley has a .500 average against Morton with four RBI’s.  I expect Utley to get the nod against Morton.

Edge: Dodgers

As the series shifts to Houston, that is when the focus will be shifted to the back of the Astros rotation.  The Dodgers have four strong starters while the Astros are very top heavy.  Morton and McCullers are certainly capable of beating the Dodgers, but it is a big step down from Keuchel and Verlander.  The Dodgers have a big advantage in game three with former ace Yu Darvish on the mound.