Dodgers: Why LA is Still the Favorite to Trade for Stanton

It’s no surprise the Miami Marlins have yet to find a suiter in the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes. The Dodgers have been the primary destination of choice for Stanton, yet the front office hasn’t made that their focal point of this offseason. Well, things are heating up as we’re two days away from the MLB Winter Meetings.

Even though the Marlins gave Stanton an ultimatum this week, Stanton has stuck to his guns (pun intended). The Marlins threatened to trade away key players if Stanton didn’t agree to a trade with either the Cardinals or the Giants. Stanton holds all the leverage here with his full no-trade clause, and he just doesn’t want to play for St. Louis of San Francisco. His top choice has always been the Dodgers. Up until last night.

Stanton told the Marlins that he’s now willing to accept a trade to three more teams. Coincidentally, they were the last four teams standing in the MLB postseason last year (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros). Clearly, this shakes up the entire MLB landscape by making good teams better.

It wasn’t truly possible that a big name like Stanton would be moved without the bigger markets in the league checking in to see the price tag. But at last, we’re finally here. So with three of the bigger markets in the MLB involved in the Stanton sweepstakes, who has the biggest advantage?

4. Houston Astros

The Astros are the defending World Champions. It’s obvious any player would waive their no-trade clause to join a young, talented team amidst their defending championship season. So it makes sense why Stanton would accept a trade to the Astros. But is it feasible?

The Astros aren’t known as an organization that signs players to big contracts and pays the luxury tax fees. They are a franchise that prides itself on a “home-grown” player state of mind. After all, that’s how their core was created this season with Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Keuchel, McCullers and the several other in-house names.

Now what was interesting was how GM, Jeff Luhnow has changed the approach of this organization. The last offseason after not making the playoffs, Luhnow felt there was a need to bring in some veteran presence to guide their youthful core. Luhnow signed Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Charlie Morton and others to make sure this young team remains relevant. Well, that paid off in a big way with Houston’s first World Series Championship.

Luhnow also pulled off a very unprecedented Astros move by trading for veteran ace Justin Verlander after the July trade deadline. The deal meant that the Astros would assume the remaining $56 million left on Verlander’s contract through 2020. You don’t see small market teams like the Astros make a trade for a veteran pitcher with a big contract. You typically see them trading away their veteran high priced player for younger assets with more years of control.

Which is why the Astros are a highly unlikely team to trade Stanton. This franchise has never been one to trade the control of their prospects for the services of a super-star. The superstars that the Astros have are home-grown, and I anticipate it staying that way.

The fact that the Astros are defending World Champions isn’t going to force a trade here. Even with the opportunity to become an early 2000’s Yankee-like dynasty, this has never been the ownership style. The Astros come in fourth on Stanton’s list to make a trade happen.

3. Chicago Cubs

Well, what do you know? Another young team that is fresh off of a Championship victory. The Cubs didn’t come up as a big surprise as a potential trade candidate for Stanton. They are one of the bigger market teams that could work out a deal sufficient for both parties.

So will Theo Epstein jump on the opportunity to add a 40 home run bat to his lineup? We’ll have to wait and see, but my initial thought was no. The Cubs’ needs go far and beyond a power hitting outfielder.

They have a young outfield with Schwarber (24), Almora (23), Heyward (28), and even Happ (23). Stanton is head and shoulders better than all of those players, but I don’t see Epstein trying to improve an outfield that doesn’t need much improvement. Especially when you consider that Brice Harper could be a free agent next offseason and the Cubs would be very likely in play to sign him.

Their room for improvement is on the mound. Jake Arrieta is a key component of their pitching staff, and he’s not a lock to return to Chicago. They recently signed Tyler Chatwood so that could be a sign that they are prepared to move on from Arrieta. But the point here is that their emphasis this offseason will be to improve their pitching. Their bullpen was one of the worst in the league and was a big reason why the Dodgers were able to eliminate them in the NLCS.

This move just doesn’t make sense for Epstein to make an illogical move to trade away prospects and tie up their payroll for one player that improves an aspect of their team that is okay. If we were talking about a Chris Sale then yes, they’d be atop the list. But for an outfielder, it really doesn’t make sense. Their lineup has plenty of players who have big home run potential, adding Stanton improves it, but not to the level that you’d think. The Cubs are third on Stanton’s list to pull off a trade.

2. New York Yankees

No surprise here. Another young team with the huge potential to win a championship. I respect that about Stanton’s narrow list of teams. It shows that he wants to compete for a championship. Afterall, all those home runs and MVPs don’t mean anything if you don’t have a ring. But onto the Yankees.

Geez. I really don’t think that ballpark can withhold Judge and Stanton on the same team. Can you imagine that? Geez! They would set the record for most team home runs in a season, and the New York would have to build a roof for the train that transports people to Yankee Stadium.

Would the Yankees pull the trigger on a Staton trade? Well, I wouldn’t put it past them as they did a trade similar to this deal trading for A-Rod 14 years ago. For Yankee fans, it could seem like deja vu to hear George Steinbrenner is linked to another superstar who signed a 10-year deal. But did the A-Rod trade actually benefit the Yankees? Sure they won a championship, but this was a deal that didn’t end in a pretty breakup. Now should Steinbrenner do it again?

If you’re going based on needs, the answer is no. The Yankees, like the Cubs, have a promising outfield. Also similar to the Dodgers, Steinbrenner has promised the team will get under the luxury tax threshold.

It seems like Steinbrenner, and the Yankees are looking forward to the upcoming 2018 free agent class and willing to save their salary for Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, or Bryce Harper. Quite frankly it makes sense. Either Machado or Donaldson makes much more sense than Stanton as it weakens a team in their division and also locks down third base for them which is a revolving door at this point.

It won’t surprise me if the Yankees pull off a deal to bring in Stanton. That lineup will have a whole lot of power with Stanton, Judge, Sanchez, and even Gregorius. Multiple reports are suggesting a deal could get done if the Marlins are willing to take Ellsbury and Castro’s contract back in return for Stanton’s $295M. I don’t think the Yankees are as big as a long shot to make a deal for Stanton.